This paper reports the statistical and probabilistic reasoning of young children in terms of randomness, variability, and data representations in the context of informal inferential reasoning (IIR). Using the IIR approach, a task was designed and conducted one-on-one with 28 children aged 5 to 6 years old, in a case study setting. The researcher…

Findings on children's proportional reasoning abilities strongly vary across studies. This might be due to the different contexts that can be used in proportional problems: fair-sharing, mixtures, and probability. A review of the scientific literature suggests that the context of proportional problems may not only impact the difficulty of the…

Mental model (Johnson-Laird, 2001) and probabilistic theories (Oaksford & Chater, 2009) claim to provide distinct explanations of human reasoning. However, the dual strategy model of reasoning suggests that this distinction corresponds to different reasoning strategies, termed "counterexample" and "statistical,"…

Past studies have documented some pre-service teachers' (PSTs) difficulties in reasoning about sampling variability. This study adds to the body of literature by investigating the ideas that PSTs employ in reasoning about sampling variability, and by conjecturing what is behind the difficulties especially during the contextuality episodes. This…

Pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) traditionally has been used in research concerning prospective and practicing classroom teachers. This essay argues that PCK is also relevant to other professions including those advancing quantitative reasoning (QR). To illustrate, the case of PCK for teaching QR is considered. Those in fields such as public…

The modifier effect refers to the fact that the perceived likelihood of a property in a noun category is diminished if the noun is modified. For example, "Pigs live on farms" is rated as more likely than "Dirty pigs live on farms." The modifier effect has been demonstrated in many studies, but the underlying cognitive…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…

Several studies revealed that probability misconceptions were widespread among students, but the activities for addressing the misconceptions has been lacking. This study designed activities that reflect real life situations for addressing equiprobability bias, positive and negative recency effects, belief bias and representativeness bias for…

Probabilities tend to become an integral part of early childhood mathematics curricula. Research has shown that at the age of 4, children indicate basics of probabilistic reasoning and can engage with probabilistic tasks and uncertainty. The aim of this study is to examine whether methodological and design alterations influence children's…

This research aimed to examine the difficulties and failures of eleventh-grade students regarding probability concepts. With this aim, ten different open-ended probability problems were asked to the 142 eleventh-grade students. Each of these problems requires using different basic probability concepts. It is qualitative research, and the data…

One of the central goals of modern science and chemistry education is to develop students' abilities to understand complex phenomena, and productively engage in explanation, justification, and argumentation. To accomplish this goal, we should better characterise the types of reasoning that we expect students to master in the different scientific…

The article reports the results of a study, the main aim of which was to find out correlations among the three components of the Culture of problem solving (reading comprehension, creativity and ability to use the existing knowledge) and six dimensions of Scientific reasoning (conservation of matter and volume, proportional reasoning, control of…

We present a multiple-choice test, the Montana State University Formal Reasoning Test (FORT), to assess college students' scientific reasoning ability. The test defines scientific reasoning to be equivalent to formal operational reasoning. It contains 20 questions divided evenly among five types of problems: control of variables, hypothesis…

A fundamental aspect of statistical inference is representation of real-world data using statistical models. This article analyzes students' articulations of statistical models and modeling during their first steps in making informal statistical inferences. An integrated modeling approach (IMA) was designed and implemented to help students…

Understanding complex systems requires reasoning about causal relationships that behave or appear to behave probabilistically. Features such as distributed agency, large spatial scales, and time delays obscure co-variation relationships and complex interactions can result in non-deterministic relationships between causes and effects that are best…