Many generalization studies in education are typically based on a sample of 30-70 schools while the inference population is at least twenty times larger. This small sample to population size ratio limits the precision of design-based estimators of the population average treatment effect. Prior work has shown the potential of small area estimation…

Too often, statistical inference and probability are treated in schools like they are unrelated. In this paper, we describe how we supported students to learn about the role of probability in making inferences with variable data by building models of real world events and using them to simulate repeated samples.

The frequentist and classical models of probability provide students with different lenses through which they can view probability. Prior research showed that students may bridge these two lenses through instructional designs that begin with a clear connection between the two, such as coin tossing. Considering that this connection is not always…

The development of Augmented Reality technologies has enabled students to learn in an environment that combines learning resources from the real and digital world. This paper integrates three mobile Augmented Reality-based applications into a series of mathematics lessons on probabilities in a junior high school. This paper aims to examine how…

We report on a design-based research study that was conducted over three iterations. It chronicles the design, development, and implementation of School Scene Investigators, a forensic science game series for middle school students that utilizes mobile augmented reality. Played on mobile devices while exploring the school environment, School Scene…

By the time students reach the middle years they have experienced many chance activities based on dice. Common among these are rolling one die to explore the relationship of frequency and theoretical probability, and rolling two dice and summing the outcomes to consider their probabilities. Although dice may be considered overused by some, the…

Modeling using mathematics and making inferences about mathematical situations are becoming more prevalent in most fields of study. Descriptive statistics cannot be used to generalize about a population or make predictions of what can occur. Instead, inference must be used. Simulation and sampling are essential in building a foundation for…

Real-world phenomena simulation models, which can be used to engage middle-school students with probability, are described. Links to R instructional material and easy-to-use code are provided to facilitate implementation in the classroom.

We investigate factors influencing student sign-ups for Washington State's College Bound Scholarship (CBS) program. We find a substantial share of eligible middle school students fail to sign the CBS, forgoing college financial aid. Student characteristics associated with signing the scholarship parallel characteristics of low-income students who…

This paper contributes to the discourse in stochastic education of how young students deal with learning settings that allow a data-based approach to probability. By using the micro-structure of arguments by Toulmin (1958), it explores which arguments students use and which role they play in the learning process. The data stems from design…

The study explores the development of 11-year-old students' informal inference about random bunny hops through student talk and use of computer simulation tools. Our aim in this paper is to draw on dialogic theory to explain how students make shifts in perspective, from intuition-based reasoning to more powerful, formal ways of using probabilistic…

The game of Plinko offers students an exciting real-world example of the applications of probability and data analysis. The Common Core State Standards for Mathematics (CCSSI 2010) and the Guidelines for Assessment in Statistics Education (GAISE) (Franklin et al. 2007) suggest that students in grades 6-8 be given ample opportunities to engage in…

This article seeks to address a pedagogical theory of introducing the classicist and the frequentist approach to probability, by investigating important elements in 9th grade students' learning process while working with a "TinkerPlots2" combinatorial problem. Results from this research study indicate that, after the students had seen…

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, "TinkerPlots." Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of…

Mathematics teachers, researchers and specialists in educational technology from Quebec, Canada developed virtual tools that make interactive simulations of games of chance. These tools were presented to a group of teachers from New Brunswick through workshops and they then got to test and validate them with their students. Semi-structured…