Measurement invariance (MI) describes the equivalence of measurement models of a construct across groups or time. When comparing latent means, MI is often stated as a prerequisite of meaningful group comparisons. The most common way to investigate MI is multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MG-CFA). Although numerous guides exist, a recent…

Item response theory (IRT) models are often compared with respect to predictive performance to determine the dimensionality of rating scale data. However, such model comparisons could be biased toward nested-dimensionality IRT models (e.g., the bifactor model) when comparing those models with non-nested-dimensionality IRT models (e.g., a…

Dynamic structural equation models (DSEM) are designed for time series analysis of latent structures. Inherent to the application of DSEM is model parameter estimation, which has to be addressed in many applications by a single time series. In this context, however, the methods currently available either lack estimation quality or are…

The world's move to a global economy has an impact on the high rate of student academic failure. Higher education, as the affected party, is considered crucial in reducing student academic failure. This study aims to construct a prediction (predictive model) that can forecast students' time to graduation in developing countries such as Indonesia,…

We evaluate the feasibility of developing predictive models of rater behavior, that is, "rater-specific" models for predicting the scores produced by a rater under operational conditions. In the present study, the dependent variable is the score assigned to essays by a rater, and the predictors are linguistic attributes of the essays…

Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

Educational stakeholders would be better informed if they could use their students' formative assessments results and personal background attributes to predict the conditions for achieving favorable learning outcomes, and conversely, to gain awareness of the "at-risk" signals to prevent unfavorable or worst-case scenarios from happening.…

This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

Purpose: This study aimed to use enrollment information including demographic, family background and financial status, which can be gathered before the first semester starts, to construct early prediction models (EPMs) and extract crucial factors associated with first-year student dropout probability. Design/methodology/approach: The real-world…

Maintaining and cultivating student engagement is critical for learning. Understanding factors affecting student engagement can help in designing better courses and improving student retention. The large number of participants in massive open online courses (MOOCs) and data collected from their interactions on the MOOC open up avenues for studying…

Among community college leaders and others interested in reforms to improve student success, there is growing interest in adopting machine learning (ML) techniques to predict credential completion. However, ML algorithms are often complex and are not readily accessible to practitioners for whom a simpler set of near-term measures may serve as…

The evaluation of text complexity is an important topic in education. While this objective has been addressed by approaches using lexical and syntactic analysis for decades, semantic complexity is less common, and the recent research works that tackle this question rely on machine learning algorithms that are hardly explainable and are not…

Recent methods have sought to improve precision in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by utilizing data from large observational datasets for covariate adjustment. For example, consider an RCT aimed at evaluating a new algebra curriculum, in which a few dozen schools are randomly assigned to treatment (new curriculum) or control (standard…

Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

Educational institutions increasingly recognize the role that student belonging plays in retention. Many studies in this area focus on helping students improve a sense of belonging before they matriculate or identifying belonging as a reason for their departure. This study measures students' sense of belonging at key transition points during the…