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Direct linkWaldmann, Michael R. – Cognitive Science, 2007
In everyday life, people typically observe fragments of causal networks. From this knowledge, people infer how novel combinations of causes they may never have observed together might behave. I report on 4 experiments that address the question of how people intuitively integrate multiple causes to predict a continuously varying effect. Most…
Descriptors: Cues, Context Effect, Prediction, Intuition
Sloman, Steven A.; Lagnado, David A. – Cognitive Science, 2005
A normative framework for modeling causal and counterfactual reasoning has been proposed by Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines (1993; cf. Pearl, 2000). The framework takes as fundamental that reasoning from observation and intervention differ. Intervention includes actual manipulation as well as counterfactual manipulation of a model via thought. To…
Descriptors: Observation, Intervention, Causal Models, Prediction
