Providing support for institutional planning is central to the function of institutional research. Necessary for the planning process are accurate enrollment projections. The purpose of the present study was to develop a short-term enrollment model simple enough to be understood by those who rely on it, yet sufficiently complex to serve varying…

The academic program life cycle (APLC) concept states each program's life flows through several stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. A mixed-influence diffusion growth model is fitted to annual enrollment data on academic programs to analyze the factors determining progress of academic programs through their life cycles. The…

Presents results of research efforts to develop an enrollment forecasting model for Ohio's higher education system. The model employs the concept of spatial interaction to determine the market share of each public college each year. Also discusses data bases, cost function development, and forecasting of actual enrollment for each college.…

A Markov process is used to project student enrollment for grades 1-12 for the school years 1971-1986. Absorbing Markov chain theory is used to estimate grade times, the time spent in each grade, and probabilities of eventual graduation or dropout for each grade level. (Author)

Discussion of higher education policy has been hampered in the past by an inability to forecast the effects on student behavior of proposed policies. This report describes efforts to develop a theoretical and empirical model of student behavior that will help to establish a method of forecasting enrollment patterns. In this model, actual college…

The enrollment estimates contained in this report represent the second set of institutional enrollment projections of oncampus headcount for public postsecondary education in Minnesota prepared by the staff of the Minnesota Higher Education Coordinating Commission. The projections are similar to earlier enrollment forecasts by the commission and…

The procedure was to isolate the component variables and then to formulate the logical and mathematical rules governing their interaction. Students were classified by age, grade, and sex; also, their entry to, movement through, and graduation from the system were examined. (Author)

This report is concerned with the development of a model for projecting the enrollments of The Pennsylvania State University by simulating the flow of students through the campuses and colleges of which the institution is composed. Because it concerns a twenty-two campus system of a single university, it not only constitutes an institutional…

Personnel at the College of Lake County (CLC) developed a projections model for student enrollment that satisfies the need for information for budget projections and for planning purposes. CLC is a medium-sized suburban community college located north of Chicago. The Enrollment Management Team was asked to create a process to project enrollments…

This report describes a higher education enrollment projection model developed for the state of Washington. The model operates on a student flow concept quantifying students through the flows of entrances, retention, transfers, and exits. The model is based on the assumption that the manner in which students now move through the State's higher…

This booklet presents the rationale and processes for ENSIM II, a computer-based long-range enrollment simulation model designed to consider variables not usually addressed in traditional projection techniques. The first ENSIM model was constructed for districts facing extensive residential growth and had as its primary focus the analysis of…

Reliance on enrollment trend models for revenue projections has led to a scenario of alternating overbudgeted and underbudgeted years. A study of a large, public university indicates that time series analysis should be used instead to anticipate the orderly seasonal and cyclical patterns that are visible in a period of moderate trend growth.…

This paper examines the decline in Illinois public school enrollment that began in 1971-72 and attempts to predict the likely duration and severity of the decline. Much of the paper discusses the use of two different models for calculating enrollment projections from 1974 through 1985. The grade-by-grade model formulates enrollment projections…

Technical specifications, operating procedures, and reference information for the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems' (NCHEMS) Student Flow Model (SFM) computer programs are presented. Included are narrative descriptions of the system and its modules, specific program documentation for each of the modules, system flowcharts,…