Student success and drop-out predictions have gained increased attention in recent years, connected to the hope that by identifying struggling students, it is possible to intervene and provide early help and design programs based on patterns discovered by the models. Though by now many models exist achieving remarkable accuracy-values, models…

Randomized A/B tests in educational software are not run in a vacuum: often, reams of historical data are available alongside the data from a randomized trial. This paper proposes a method to use this historical data--often highdimensional and longitudinal--to improve causal estimates from A/B tests. The method proceeds in two steps: first, fit a…

There are usually limited user evaluation of resources on a recommender system, which caused an extremely sparse user rating matrix, and this greatly reduce the accuracy of personalized recommendation, especially for new users or new items. This paper presents a recommendation method based on rating prediction using causal association rules.…

Using exogenous characteristics to identify endogenous subgroups, the approach discussed in this method note creates symmetric subsets within treatment and control groups, allowing the analysis to take advantage of an experimental design. In order to maintain treatment--control symmetry, however, prior work has posited that it is necessary to use…

Some form of a short interrupted time series (ITS) is often used to evaluate state and national programs. An ITS design with a single treatment group assumes that the pretest functional form can be validly estimated and extrapolated into the postintervention period where it provides a valid counterfactual. This assumption is problematic. Ambiguous…

When people make causal judgments from contingency information, a principal aim is to account for occurrences of the outcome. When 2 causes are under consideration, the capacity of either to account for occurrences is judged from how likely the cause is to be present when the outcome occurs and from the rate at which the outcome occurs when that…

Implications of phase space functions for psychological assessment are examined in this third article of the special section. The ability to predict the future time course of variables and the strength of causal relationships can be enhanced if temporal, dynamic, and nonlinear characteristics of variables are considered. (SLD)

The 7th International Conference on Education Data Mining held on July 4th-7th, 2014, at the Institute of Education, London, UK is the leading international forum for high-quality research that mines large data sets in order to answer educational research questions that shed light on the learning process. These data sets may come from the traces…

The IADIS CELDA 2012 Conference intention was to address the main issues concerned with evolving learning processes and supporting pedagogies and applications in the digital age. There had been advances in both cognitive psychology and computing that have affected the educational arena. The convergence of these two disciplines is increasing at a…