The objective of this paper is the design of a predictive model of students' desertion in Educational Institutions based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The proposed model is based on a weighted sum of individual probabilities of desertion associated with various factors (explanatory variables) by experts in the combined use of the AHP…

We explored a two-stage recognition memory paradigm in which people first make single-item "studied"/"not studied" decisions and then have a chance to correct their errors in forced-choice trials. Each forced-choice trial included one studied word ("target") and one nonstudied word ("lure") that received the…

Problem-based learning (PBL) has been widely applied as an alternative to improve learning outcomes, but it is still little studied in the context of the probability theory course. This study described how implementing the PBL model improves students' problem-solving and critical thinking skills in probability theory course and evaluates its…

Course dropout is a concern in online higher education, mainly in first-year courses when different factors negatively influence the learners' engagement leading to an unsuccessful outcome or even dropping out from the university. The early identification of such potential at-risk learners is the key to intervening and trying to help them before…

Mixture models have been developed to enable detection of within-subject differences in responses and response times to psychometric test items. To enable mixture modeling of both responses and response times, a distributional assumption is needed for the within-state response time distribution. Since violations of the assumed response time…

In this paper we use historic score-reporting records and test-taker metadata to inform data-driven recommendations that support international students in their choice of undergraduate institutions for study in the United States. We investigate the use of Structural Topic Modeling (STM) as a context-aware, probabilistic recommendation method that…

In analyzing data from attitude surveys, it is common to consider the "don't know" responses as missing values. In this article, we present a statistical model commonly used for the analysis of responses/evaluations expressed on Likert scales and extended to take into account the presence of don't know responses. The main objective is to…

A Machine Learning framework for predicting enrollment is proposed. The framework consists of Amazon Web Services SageMaker together with standard Python tools for data analytics, including Pandas, NumPy, MatPlotLib, and ScikitLearn. The tools are deployed with Jupyter Notebooks running on AWS SageMaker. Based on three years of enrollment history,…

Multiple choice results are inherently probabilistic outcomes, as correct responses reflect a combination of knowledge and guessing, while incorrect responses additionally reflect blunder, a confidently committed mistake. To objectively resolve knowledge from responses in an MC test structure, we evaluated probabilistic models that explicitly…

This study represented dimensions from the diffusion of innovations theory and the community of inquiry model to explore the adoption of web-conferencing. It used logistic regression to model the likelihood of adopting web-conferencing in online teaching with data collected from 66 college online instructors. In the logistic regression analyses,…

The present study aims to examine gender differential item functioning (DIF) in the reading comprehension section of a high stakes test using cognitive diagnosis models. Based on the multiple-group generalized deterministic, noisy "and" gate (MG G-DINA) model, the Wald test and likelihood ratio test are used to detect DIF. The flagged…

Course selection is a crucial and challenging problem that students have to face while navigating through an undergraduate degree program. The decisions they make shape their future in ways that they cannot conceive in advance. Available departmental sample degree plans are not personalized for each student, and personal discussion time with an…

Maintaining and cultivating student engagement is critical for learning. Understanding factors affecting student engagement can help in designing better courses and improving student retention. The large number of participants in massive open online courses (MOOCs) and data collected from their interactions on the MOOC open up avenues for studying…

Categorical perception (CP) effects manifest as faster or more accurate discrimination between objects that come from different categories compared with objects that come from the same category, controlling for the physical differences between the objects. The most popular explanations of CP effects have relied on perceptual warping causing…

Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…