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Mingya Huang; David Kaplan – Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 2025
The issue of model uncertainty has been gaining interest in education and the social sciences community over the years, and the dominant methods for handling model uncertainty are based on Bayesian inference, particularly, Bayesian model averaging. However, Bayesian model averaging assumes that the true data-generating model is within the…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Hierarchical Linear Modeling, Statistical Inference, Predictor Variables
Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen; Lyu, Weicong; Yavuz, Sinan – Large-scale Assessments in Education, 2023
The purpose of this paper is to extend and evaluate methods of "Bayesian historical borrowing" applied to longitudinal data with a focus on parameter recovery and predictive performance. Bayesian historical borrowing allows researchers to utilize information from previous data sources and to adjust the extent of borrowing based on the…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Longitudinal Studies, Children, Surveys
David Kaplan; Jianshen Chen; Weicong Lyu; Sinan Yavuz – Grantee Submission, 2023
The purpose of this paper is to extend and evaluate methods of "Bayesian historical borrowing" applied to longitudinal data with a focus on parameter recovery and predictive performance. Bayesian historical borrowing allows researchers to utilize information from previous data sources and to adjust the extent of borrowing based on the…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Longitudinal Studies, Children, Surveys
Sainan Xu; Jing Lu; Jiwei Zhang; Chun Wang; Gongjun Xu – Grantee Submission, 2024
With the growing attention on large-scale educational testing and assessment, the ability to process substantial volumes of response data becomes crucial. Current estimation methods within item response theory (IRT), despite their high precision, often pose considerable computational burdens with large-scale data, leading to reduced computational…
Descriptors: Educational Assessment, Bayesian Statistics, Statistical Inference, Item Response Theory
A Sequential Bayesian Changepoint Detection Procedure for Aberrant Behaviors in Computerized Testing
Jing Lu; Chun Wang; Jiwei Zhang; Xue Wang – Grantee Submission, 2023
Changepoints are abrupt variations in a sequence of data in statistical inference. In educational and psychological assessments, it is pivotal to properly differentiate examinees' aberrant behaviors from solution behavior to ensure test reliability and validity. In this paper, we propose a sequential Bayesian changepoint detection algorithm to…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Behavior Patterns, Computer Assisted Testing, Accuracy
Kaplan, David; Turner, Alyn – OECD Publishing (NJ1), 2012
The OECD Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) and the OECD Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) constitute two of the largest ongoing international student and teacher surveys presently underway. Data generated from these surveys offer researchers and policy-makers opportunities to identify particular educational…
Descriptors: Outcomes of Education, Teacher Surveys, Policy Analysis, Educational Change