Colleges are increasingly using models to predict student behavior and intervene to change that behavior. Because of this, when projects involve partnering with a vendor, it is more important than ever to make the right choice about which vendor. In some ways, partnering with a vendor to use predictive analytics is similar to procuring any other…

This study examines whether the classification and regression tree (CART) model improves the early identification of students at risk for reading comprehension difficulties compared with the more difficult to interpret logistic regression model. CART is a type of predictive modeling that relies on nonparametric techniques. It presents results in…

Teacher evaluation is at the center of current education policy reform. Most evaluation systems rely at least in part on principals' assessments of teachers, and their discretionary judgments carry substantial weight. However, we know relatively little about what they value when determining evaluations and high stakes personnel decisions. The…

Drawing on the authors' extensive experience at Stanford University as well as the work of others, this book offers the first systematic approach to fiscal and human resource planning at colleges and universities. It shows how decision models can and should become an integral part of the planning process. The uses and misuses of planning models in…

Reports an improved methodology for estimating teacher salary costs well in advance of the fiscal year. The Markov approach, based on probabilistic techniques, provided a more accurate prediction of school district personnel costs than did the traditional deterministic technique for the budget year studied. Includes four tables and nine…

A model using four categories of college applicants (enrollment deposit paid, deposit not yet paid, applicants not yet admitted, and those who have not yet applied) that allows forecasting of freshman enrollment from any point in the admission process and simulates the effects of trends and strategies on enrollment is outlined. (MSE)

Presents three different, complementary statistical models for predicting faculty tenure dynamics, using data from Worcester Polytechnic Institute (Massachusetts). The difference equation model exactly describes future behavior but requires complete specification. The Markov-chain model can predict the full life-cycle of tenure from initial age…

This exploratory resource allocation model for implementing community-based supported employment services for persons with mental retardation uses a multivariate linear regression approach to project the hours required to develop a job site based on the size of the community, the rate of unemployment, and the percent of service jobs. (Author/DB)

Research on voluntary college mergers led to development of a model predicting the probability of a merger with 80-100 percent accuracy. The model was based on fundamental governing board concerns about mission, risk, and reputation. Results reveal the merger negotiation process is dynamic and reveals characteristics of successful approaches. (MSE)

A quantitative method developed at Stanford University that addresses programmatically the short- and long-term needs of the college physical plant is discussed. The approach allows the administrator to accurately assess funding resources for the maintenance program in conjunction with academic and construction programs. A special task force at…

Examples of the use of a mathematical model to evaluate the future renewal and replacement, or maintenance requirements, of the college physical plant are provided. The model, which was developed at Stanford University, simulates actual conditions at a specific location and allows resource allocation to be based on a definable quantitative base.…

Argues that, with technology costs and revenue opportunities changing rapidly, colleges' future financial strategies concerning technology will have to be more agile and adaptable than ever. Presents financial models from 20 independent colleges and universities, and discusses how they have been used to define a financial strategy for technology…

The focus of the session summarized in this paper was on how postsecondary educational institutions can better anticipate the future of higher education by using the "alternative futures approach to planning" model. The alternative futures model processes the best available information obtainable so that plausible alternative futures in…

This paper addresses the problem of shaping new strategies in the face of current enrollment declines at many colleges and universities. It describes an approach that applies a long term planning model that can incorporate the short-term realities of lower enrollments and budget constraints with projections for new strategic initiatives. The paper…

Long-range planning is becoming increasingly important for educators in today's rapidly changing society. This bulletin accordingly presents a step-by-step model for school districts to use in developing and successfully implementing a long-range plan. Chapter 1 introduces long-range planning and suggests ways of getting district personnel…