This article revisits the Mincer earnings function and presents comparable estimates of the average monetary returns associated with an additional year of education across different regions worldwide. In contrast to the traditional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method commonly employed in the literature, this study applied a cutting-edge approach…

This study examines whether the classification and regression tree (CART) model improves the early identification of students at risk for reading comprehension difficulties compared with the more difficult to interpret logistic regression model. CART is a type of predictive modeling that relies on nonparametric techniques. It presents results in…

Planning for policy implementation is as important as the implementation itself. A policy's intent can be subverted by the way the policy is implemented, or when unanticipated outcomes take precedence over the true intent. This article presents three cases of specific instances of unintended outcomes from policy implementation and presents a…

The 21 essays in this two-part book provide conceptual and operational understanding of the nature of models as representations of reality and as tools for description, analysis, interpretation, and forecasting. Topic areas addressed in part 1 (concept) include: the nature of models; the earth as a system; the determination of form; some…

Reports an improved methodology for estimating teacher salary costs well in advance of the fiscal year. The Markov approach, based on probabilistic techniques, provided a more accurate prediction of school district personnel costs than did the traditional deterministic technique for the budget year studied. Includes four tables and nine…

Based on sample data representing five years of monthly circulation totals from 50 academic libraries in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and Ohio, a study was conducted to determine the most efficient smoothing forecasting methods for academic libraries. Smoothing forecasting methods were chosen because they have been characterized…

Compares the traditional model of a service economy to models based on analyses of actual economic and employment trends, and discusses the role of information technologies in producer and consumer services; current policy issues concerning the information sector; and the need to integrate the concepts of goods and services. (CLB)

Long-range planning is becoming increasingly important for educators in today's rapidly changing society. This bulletin accordingly presents a step-by-step model for school districts to use in developing and successfully implementing a long-range plan. Chapter 1 introduces long-range planning and suggests ways of getting district personnel…

This paper presents a model for projecting the need for special education teachers which incorporates key elements of a market-based supply/demand model. The model provides equations to predict the supply of both certified and uncertified special education teachers. It involves the following supply factors: current certified employed teacher…

The impact of different admissions policies on Black, Hispanic, and White applicants was investigated, using College Board data. Five undergraduate admissions models were assessed. The single-index minimum model uses a single index, such as high school grade point average (GPA), to determine eligibility. The multiple-index minimum model uses two…

An empirical model of community services spending in the states for mental retardation and developmental disabilities was tested using cumulative community services fiscal effort across 1977-88. Strength of consumer advocacy organizations coupled with states' historical orientations toward policies promoting racial equality were highly significant…

Using the Oklahoma State University (OSU) computerized community simulation model, extension professionals can provide local decision makers with information derived from an impact model that is dynamic, community specific, and easy to adapt to different communities. The four main sections of the OSU model are an economic account, a capital…

The development of the error prone model (EPM) for the 1984-1985 student financial aid validation criteria for Pell Grant recipient selection is discussed, based on a comparison of the 1983-1984 EPM criteria and a newly estimated EPM. Procedures/assumptions on which the new EPM was based include: a sample of 1982-1983 Pell Grant recipients…

The development of a number of error-prone models to select Pell Grant recipients for validation is discussed. The 1983-1984 Pell Grant validation strategy consists of a two-stage approach: selection using Pre-Established Criteria (PEC) followed by selection using Error Prone Modeling (EPM). The database used for model development consists of a…

This report summarizes a strategy evaluation study of the Personnel Preparation Program (a division in the federal Office of Special Education Programs). The Personnel Preparation Program is intended to increase the numbers of qualified special educators through grants to institutions of higher education and state education agencies. This study…