Diagnostic assessment is currently an active research area in educational measurement. Literature related to diagnostic modeling has been in existence for several decades, but a great deal of research has been conducted within the last decade or so, especially within the last five years. The author summarizes the key components in the application…

Monte Carlo methods are used to simulate activities in baseball such as a team's "hot streak" and a hitter's "batting slump." Student participation in such simulations is viewed as a useful method of giving pupils a better understanding of the probability concepts involved. (MP)

A model for comparing risks to resources with exposures to hazards is described and then applied to the physical educator. (JMF)

During the last decade the use of Bayesian statistical method has become quite prevalent in the educational community. Yet, like most statistical techniques, little has been written concerning the application of these methods to the classroom setting. The purpose of this paper is to help correct such a deficiency in the literature by developing a…

Describes several activities of the Data and Chance program involving third and fourth graders. Students use real-life situations to investigate probability. (MKR)

Presents an activity in which the subject is the identity of the team in the greatest jeopardy of becoming the big loser in a basketball tournament. Explores several facts about the big loser, offering them in a hierarchy appropriate for creating various short- and long-term projects for a high school mathematics class. (ASK)

Discusses how the discovery of chaos has created a new paradigm in scientific modeling and how findings are contributing to changes in thought about many different branches of science. Includes explanations and examples of how chaotic behavior can be understood. (ML)

With the Seeing and Thinking Mathematically materials, students learn mathematics by doing mathematics, by using and connecting mathematical ideas, and by actively constructing their own understandings. In this unit students learn to see probability through a mathematical lens by exploring and creating games and simulations and by applying the…

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

Presents an activity that utilizes the mathematical models of forest fires and oil spills that were generated (in the first part of this activity, published in the November 1998 issue) by students using probability and cellular automata. (ASK)

Provides mathematical activities in reproducible formats appropriate for students in grades 7-12. The objective is to practice using area models in analyzing compound situations and calculating the expected value or long-term average. (PK)

The activity uses an area model to analyze probabilities associated with games of chance. Three activity sheets are included, with teaching suggestions. (MNS)

A computer program is presented which simulates the classical probability machine, using Applesoft II high-resolution graphics. Many variables are left to the user's choosing. Suggestions for using the machine, understanding the problem, the mathematical model, and further program documentation are given. (MNS)

Discusses ways to simulate a probability problem of interest to middle school students in which students calculate the average number of packets of trading cards purchased to obtain a complete set of cards. Simulations utilize a spinner, a table of random numbers, and a computer. Includes the BASIC program utilized in the simulation. (MDH)

Mathematical modelling activities related to everyday situations (e.g., traffic lights) can be used to develop probability concepts. (SD)