Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these "knowns" about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and…

In this digital ITEMS module, Dr. Roy Levy describes Bayesian approaches to psychometric modeling. He discusses how Bayesian inference is a mechanism for reasoning in a probability-modeling framework and is well-suited to core problems in educational measurement: reasoning from student performances on an assessment to make inferences about their…

Survey sampling is fundamentally an applied field. The goal in this book is to put an array of tools at the fingertips of practitioners by explaining approaches long used by survey statisticians, illustrating how existing software can be used to solve survey problems, and developing some specialized software where needed. This book serves at least…