Individuals often estimate the probability of future events by the ease with which they can recall or cognitively construct relevant instances. Previous research has not precisely identified the cognitive processes mediating this "availability heuristic." Two potential mediators (imagery of the event, perceived reasons or causes for the…

Because previous studies had suggestd that Down Syndrome subjects did not respond to changes in directional probability within a complex motor task as did other retarded subjects, 14 Down Syndrome 18-year-olds were given training relative to the directional probability component of the task. Performance was improved but primarily in terms of…

Four experiments investigated college students' judgments of inter-event contingency. Subjects were asked to judge the effect of a discrete response (tapping a wire) on the occurrence of a brief outcome (a radio's buzzing). Pairings of the possible event-state combinations were presented in a summary table, an unbroken time line, or a broken time…

Features and tools to outline and shape the long-term learning process for ratio are presented, with examples. Ratio-anticipating activity and creating visual models and schemes are stressed, with the basis for a theory of teaching and learning ratio presented. (MNS)

The goal of books in this series is to present work that is on the growing tip of research in cognitive development. The theme of this volume is children's logical and mathematical cognition, a field in which Piaget's influence has been extensive. In the first of the six chapters, Acredolo presents a new theory of the cognitive bases for…

Describes a study to determine middle school children's representational strategies to form part-whole or part-part relationships for relational numbers such as proportions, ratios, or fractions. Quantitative and qualitative analysis revealed that children prefer a part-part representation to solve relational quantity problems. (15 references)…

Related research suggests that children may show some simple understanding of event covariations by the early elementary school years. The present experiments use a rule analysis methodology to investigate covariation judgments of children in this age range. In Experiment 1, children in second, third and fourth grade judged covariations on 12…

Past research indicates poor agreement about strategies people use to assess covariation between events. This research investigates method of assessment as one possible source of this low consensus. A set of problems was developed in such a way that different judgment rules would produce different decisions about the relationships between events.…

Four strategies used in judgment patterns were explored. Problem sets in which each solution strategy produces a unique solution pattern are depicted. Several experiments had been conducted using rules in this way with subjects from grade 4 through college. Problems were set in the context of concrete events which could be related, and subjects…

The concept of probability is not an easy concept for high school and college students to understand. This paper identifies and analyzes the students' alternative frameworks from the viewpoint of constructivism. There are various interpretations of probability through mathematical history: classical, frequentist, and subjectivist interpretation.…

This report provides an overview of eight experiments on covariation judgment training. Included are a literature review, rationale, and description of the rule-analytic approach used in all experiments. Experiment 1 identified undergraduates' understandings of rule use, finding self-report a poor method for diagnosing sources of error. Experiment…

This paper illustrates a model of the layperson's reasoning patterns under conditions of uncertainty, the "outcome approach," which was developed from analysis of videotaped problem-solving interviews with 16 undergraduate students. According to the outcome approach, the goal in questions of uncertainty is to predict the outcome of an…