This volume centres the notion of "chance" in education as a key concept in contemporary education -- relating to aspects like accountability, datafication, or international large-scale assessments -- and discusses the impact that the historical desire to "tame" this notion has had on present-day educational policy and…

In addition to providing a set of techniques to analyze educational data, I claim that data science as a field can provide broader insights to education research. In particular, I show how the bias-variance tradeoff from machine learning can be formally generalized to be applicable to several prominent educational debates, including debates around…

Every year the U.S. Department of Education reports for each state in the country the grade levels, subject areas, and geographic areas that have experienced teacher shortages (U.S. Department of Education, Office of Postsecondary Education, 2015). A teacher shortage occurs when the number of teachers available in a specific grade, subject matter…

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2026" is the 45th report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2025" and projections of…

Education systems are increasingly creating rich, longitudinal data sets with frequent, and even real-time, data updates of many student measures, including daily attendance, homework submissions, and exam scores. These data sets provide an opportunity for district and school staff members to move beyond an indicators-based approach and instead…

Two sophisticated--autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), straight-line regression--and two naive--simple average, monthly average--forecasting techniques were used to forecast monthly circulation totals of 34 public libraries. Comparisons of forecasts and actual totals revealed that ARIMA and monthly average methods had smallest mean…

A procedure for smoothing proportions of a double-entry expectancy table is described. The product is a nomograph from which can be read expectancies from combinations of values of two predictor variables. Use of the procedure in admission of first-year college students, based on students' high school class rank and standardized test composite…

Twelve trained observers were randomly assigned to one of two methods of data collection in scoring teacher-student interactions. Results indicated no overall difference in observer accuracy between momentary time sampling and continuous data collection when scoring behaviors that differed along the dimensions of frequency and predictability.…

Clarifies appropriateness of certain simulation approaches by distinguishing between different types of simulations--experimental, predictive, evaluative, and educational--on the basis of purpose, assumptions, procedures, and criteria for evaluating. The kinds of questions each type best responds to are discussed. (65 references) (MBR)

Case study on acid rain illustrates procedures for systematized tracking of issues: using bibliometric methods to list journals to be scanned; using current awareness searches of online databases to supplement journal scanning; using literature monitoring to create significant terms file; and tracking terms through online database index. (10…

This report summarizes the deliberations of the Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel's Committee on Data Needs for Monitoring Labor-Market Conditions for Engineers. The purpose of this report is to help the profession make existing data bases on engineers more complete, accurate, and compatible. The report is also intended to help…

Circulation time-series data from 50 midwest academic libraries were used to test 110 variants of 8 smoothing forecasting methods. Data and methodologies and illustrations of two recommended methods--the single exponential smoothing method and Brown's one-parameter linear exponential smoothing method--are given. Eight references are cited. (EJS)

Describes a practical study to demonstrate trend analysis and several related statistical instruments that can be applied to library research, presents possible topic for full study, and substantiates author's view on future of libraries. An overall analysis of variance is presented and examples of data analysis are appended. (13 references) (EJS)

This handbook for institutional researchers focuses on describing methods and techniques for conducting and merging external and internal analyses in order to produce an expanded vision of alternative future environments. Such vision is needed for the formulation of strategic long-range plans. Section 1 begins with a discussion of how an internal…

Reviews studies done on academic library growth in attempt to clarify three reasons for failure of these analyses to result in usable projections of library size. Highlights include patterns in library growth (hypothetical exponential and arithmetic growth), Fremont Rider's studies of growth, and literature on growth after Rider. (28 references)…