Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and…

This study examined the science process skill of prediction problem solving using naturalistic research methodology and information-processing theory. The think-aloud interview led to the identification of several specific program exploration and prediction behaviors. A total of 14 high school biology students made predictions concerning the…

Clarifies appropriateness of certain simulation approaches by distinguishing between different types of simulations--experimental, predictive, evaluative, and educational--on the basis of purpose, assumptions, procedures, and criteria for evaluating. The kinds of questions each type best responds to are discussed. (65 references) (MBR)

Misconceptions, shown to be prevalent in students even at the college level, may affect the cognitive process of making predictions in biology. The purpose of this study was to: (1) identify students' misconceptions about important biological concepts; (2) identify students' cognitive behaviors associated with making predictions about these…

Discusses importance of academic planning and describes a model-based decision support system for academic units in a university hierarchy. This system integrates macro-level decisions by examining individual departments' budgets to determine future plans. Quantitative techniques for forecasting change are reviewed, including use of spreadsheet…

Uses the various strategies involved in baseball to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Specifically discusses Willie Mays' base-stealing strategy and how it relates to probability and risk. Reminds students that expected results depend on adopted assumptions. (MJP)

The development of a planning/budgeting model as an integral component of a decision support system is described. The case study approach is used to describe how Grambling State University (GSU) developed the model to improve its financial planning and budgeting processes. The model can be used for tactical and/or strategic planning. The model is…

In this article, the author discusses the use in policy analysis of models that incorporate uncertainty. He believes that all models should consider incorporating uncertainty, but that at the same time it is important to understand that sampling variability is not usually the dominant driver of uncertainty in policy analyses. He also argues that…

Chapter One of the Education Consolidation and Improvement Act (ECIA) distributes compensatory education grants on the basis of a formula that considers population and cost factors for each of the nation's 3,128 counties. The focus of this report is the effectiveness of that formula in meeting the stated purpose of the legislation to provide aid…