Individuals often estimate the probability of future events by the ease with which they can recall or cognitively construct relevant instances. Previous research has not precisely identified the cognitive processes mediating this "availability heuristic." Two potential mediators (imagery of the event, perceived reasons or causes for the…

Examined the problem-solving performances of novices (11 undergraduates) and experts (9 graduate students and instructors), comparing them in terms of background expertise and problem-solving success. Also examined problem-solving behaviors reported in other domains and determined whether or not genetics is a fruitful area for problem-solving…

Investigates which formal principles govern subjective probability, and whether the validity of these principles depends on age. Results indicate that these principles are valid as principles of subjective probability for all age groups. (RWB)

The explicit, experimental introduction of a series of logical inconsistencies is described and recommended as a means of disrupting the faulty logic and, thereby, enhancing the use of more appropriate probabilistic reasoning by graduate students enrolled in an introductory inferential statistics course. (14 references) (JJK)

This paper illustrates a model of the layperson's reasoning patterns under conditions of uncertainty, the "outcome approach," which was developed from analysis of videotaped problem-solving interviews with 16 undergraduate students. According to the outcome approach, the goal in questions of uncertainty is to predict the outcome of an…