In the last years special "ovals" appear increasingly often in diagrams and applets for discussing crucial items of statistical inference (when dealing with confidence intervals for an unknown probability p; approximation of the binomial distribution by the normal distribution; especially in German literature, see e.g. [Meyer,…

Large language models (LLMs) provide cost-effective but possibly inaccurate predictions of human behavior. Despite growing evidence that predicted and observed behavior are often not "interchangeable," there is limited guidance on using LLMs to obtain valid estimates of causal effects and other parameters. We argue that LLM predictions…

Most existing solutions to the current replication crisis in science address only the factors stemming from specific poor research practices. We introduce a novel mechanism that leverages the experts' predictive abilities to analyze the root causes of replication failures. It is backed by the principle that the most accurate predictor is the most…