We consider the cascading effects of researcher decisions throughout the process of quantifying racially polarized voting (RPV). We contrast three methods of estimating precinct racial composition, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), fully Bayesian BISG, and Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), and two algorithms for performing ecological…

Large language models (LLMs) provide cost-effective but possibly inaccurate predictions of human behavior. Despite growing evidence that predicted and observed behavior are often not "interchangeable," there is limited guidance on using LLMs to obtain valid estimates of causal effects and other parameters. We argue that LLM predictions…

Combining observational and experimental data for causal inference can improve treatment effect estimation. However, many observational data sets cannot be released due to data privacy considerations, so one researcher may not have access to both experimental and observational data. Nonetheless, a small amount of risk of disclosing sensitive…