Large language models (LLMs) provide cost-effective but possibly inaccurate predictions of human behavior. Despite growing evidence that predicted and observed behavior are often not "interchangeable," there is limited guidance on using LLMs to obtain valid estimates of causal effects and other parameters. We argue that LLM predictions…

Foundations of statistics research aims to establish fundamental principles guiding inference about populations under uncertainty. It is concerned with the process of learning from observations, notions of uncertainty and induction, and satisfying inferential objectives. The growing interest in predictive methods in high-stakes fields like…

Single-case experimental designs (SCEDs) have been used with increasing frequency to identify evidence-based interventions in education. The purpose of this study was to explore how several procedural characteristics, including within-phase variability (i.e., measurement error), number of baseline observations, and number of intervention…

The clustered observational study (COS) design is the observational study counterpart to the clustered randomized trial. In a COS, a treatment is assigned to intact groups, and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment. However, the treatment is non-randomly assigned. COSs are common in both education and health services research. In…

In the complex world of educational policy, causal inferences will be debated. As we review non-experimental designs in educational policy, we focus on how to clarify and focus the terms of debate. We begin by presenting the potential outcomes/counterfactual framework and then describe approximations to the counterfactual generated from the…