Purpose: In an era of unprecedented student measurement and emphasis on data-driven educational decision making, the full potential for using data to target resources to students has yet to be realized. This study explores the utility of machine-learning techniques with large-scale administrative data to identify student dropout risk. Research…

Nineteen percent of 1997-98 North Carolina 3rd graders were observed to drop out of high school. A series of logits predict probabilities of dropping out on determinants such as math and reading test scores, absenteeism, suspension, and retention, at the following grade levels: 3rd, 5th, 8th, and 9th. The same cohort and variables are used to…

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

Millions of American children reach 4th grade without learning to read proficiently. The shortfall is especially pronounced among low-income children. Reading proficiently by the end of 3rd grade is a crucial marker in a child's educational development. Failure to read proficiently is linked to higher rates of school dropout, which suppresses…

Data from a population-based repository in Manitoba showed that students who are male, young for grade, and in Grades 1, 2, 7, and 8 were the most likely to be retained. After controlling for key student factors including socioeconomic status, school changes, and key school characteristics including stability of the student body, retention was a…