ERIC Number: ED671579
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2025
Pages: 33
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: 0000-00-00
Predicting Who Attends (2-Year and 4-Year) College Based on Early (3rd Grade) and Later Test Scores. CEDR Working Paper No. 03212025-1
Dan Goldhaber; Stephanie Liddle
Center for Education Data & Research
The current literature on early predictors of postsecondary outcomes focuses almost exclusively on the relationship between postsecondary outcomes and students' academic achievements and experiences in middle and high school. These relationships are important, but policymakers and educators might get a more complete picture of how K12 relates to college success if we also consider the role played by earlier experiences in schooling. That is what we do in this paper. We use statewide censuses of multiple student cohorts in Washington state to descriptively examine the relationship between students' 3rd grade test performance and college enrollment outcomes. We find that students' 3rd grade test scores strongly predicted the likelihood of enrolling in a 4-year college--roughly as well as high school tests--with significant variation across performance deciles and by students' race/ethnicity and gender.
Descriptors: Predictor Variables, College Outcomes Assessment, Academic Achievement, Student Experience, Grade 3, Scores, Correlation, Enrollment Influences, College Bound Students, Gender Differences, Racial Differences, Ethnic Diversity, Tests, High Schools, Elementary School Students
Center for Education Data & Research. 3876 Bridge Way North Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103. Tel: 206-547-5585; Fax: 206-547-1641; e-mail: cedr@uw.edu; Web site: http://www.cedr.us
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education; Early Childhood Education; Elementary Education; Grade 3; Primary Education; High Schools; Secondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Authoring Institution: University of Washington, Bothell. Center for Education Data & Research (CEDR)
Identifiers - Location: Washington
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A