Understanding complex systems requires reasoning about causal relationships that behave or appear to behave probabilistically. Features such as distributed agency, large spatial scales, and time delays obscure co-variation relationships and complex interactions can result in non-deterministic relationships between causes and effects that are best…

"Probability is a difficult concept to teach, because children and adults find it counterintuitive." This is impetus to consider the detailed planning of a set of lessons with a "mixed", in many senses, group of fourth graders. Can the use of prior experience, and the knowledge associated with that experience, make probability a concept that is…