How likely is the glass to break, given that it is heated? The present study asks questions such as this with or without the premise "if the glass is heated, it breaks." A reduced problem (question without premise) measures the statistical dependency (conditional probability) of an event to occur, given that another has occurred. Such…

This study investigated the comprehension and effectiveness of teaching formal, probabilistic decision-making skills to middle school students. Two specific objectives were to determine (1) if middle school students can comprehend a probabilistic decision-making approach, and (2) if exposure to the modeling approaches improves middle school…