This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) continues to be interested in addressing the issue identified by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). With the release of the 2009 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) reading and mathematics assessments, NCES again had the opportunity to measure the status and change in…

The Texas Projection Measure (TPM) has grown out of the state's need to meet the requirements of No Child Left Behind (NCLB). An examination of the state's method of predicting 8th grade mathematics scores reveals that several factors have been ignored in the process of developing the model, including assumptions in its underlying statistical…