Using administrative data from an urban school district, two series of predictive models were tested for their ability to project a student's high school graduation status. The models included student grades, attendance, behavior, demographic predictors, and school-level variables. Eighth and ninth-grade variables were tested for two graduation…

Policies aiming to improve educational outcomes are typically based on academic testing data. However, such data only reflect the performance of students who completed the tests. It is possible that students who were absent have shared characteristics. The proportion of students absent out of all eligible school students and whether they have…

Ninth grade is a critical juncture for students--and can be a jarring transition. Even students a strong track record in the middle grades can experience academic difficulty, and those who enter high school with poor course grades, weak attendance, or behavior problems are especially at risk. An early misstep can have lasting implications:…

In partnership with the Midwest Dropout Prevention Research Alliance the study team used student-level data and a five-step process to identify the most accurate indicators of students' failure to graduate from high school on time. Student-level data came from attendance records, transcripts, and discipline records of grade 8 and 9 students in…

This study analyzed data on students in three Ohio school districts who had completed grades 8 and 9 to determine which data elements were the most accurate indicators of students' failure to graduate from high school on time. The most accurate indicators varied by district and grade level, which underscores the importance of having school systems…

The purpose of this study was to examine student characteristics related to completing high school within four years, with particular emphasis on graduation outcomes for male and English language learner students. The authors looked at a cohort of students who began grade 9 in the 2007/08 school year in four Oregon districts. Factors related to…

This study examined the influence of student demographic variables (i.e., SES, race, attendance, and gender) and the school variable of placement in an inclusion setting on the academic achievement of general education students in grades 6, 7, and 8 (n = 1200) in an urban school district as measured by the 2010-2011 NJASK, the state's annual…

The transition from eighth grade to high school results in a substantial drop in course performance for many students. These declines in performance lead students to fall off-track for obtaining high school and college degrees. By using data on students' middle grade performance, high school staff can set goals for their students to help them meet…

In 2007, spurred by University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research (UChicago CCSR) research reports, leadership at the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) began a new targeted approach to reducing course failure in the ninth grade. The research suggested that the transition between eighth and ninth grade played a critical role in shaping…

An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

There is a very large population of students who struggle with the transition from the middle grades to high school, raising concerns that high school failures are partially a function of poor middle grade preparation. As a result, middle grade practitioners are grappling with questions about what skills students need to succeed in high school,…

This study of graduation outcomes in Baltimore uses multivariate analysis of longitudinal student cohort data to examine the impact of factors identified in previous research as early warning indicators of a dropout outcome. Student cohort files were constructed from longitudinal administrative data (following all first-time 2004-2005 and…

This study of high school outcomes in the Baltimore City Public Schools builds on substantial prior research on the early warning indicators of dropping out. It sought to investigate whether the same variables that predicted a non-graduation outcome in other urban districts--attendance, behavior problems, and course failure--were also significant…

The aim of the research was to assess the economic, educational and cultural predictors of the TIMSS 2003 science test results in Lithuania and Estonia. The data for the research were received from the TIMSS 2003 User Guide for the International Database. The Spearman rank correlation coefficients, calculated on the students' level and the schools…