In this article we study the conceptions of an American and a French group of undergraduate pre-service teachers regarding the concept of independent events. Specifically, we study the role that intuition plays in their answers, ascertain the presence of probabilistic biases, and compare the findings with previous results collected on a different…

Well-designed digital games can deliver powerful experiences that are difficult to provide through traditional instruction, while traditional instruction can deliver formal explanations that are not a natural fit for gameplay. Combined, they can accomplish more than either can alone. An experiment tested this claim using the topic of statistics,…

Base-rate neglect refers to the tendency for people to underweight base-rate probabilities in favor of diagnostic information. It is commonly held that base-rate neglect occurs because effortful (Type 2) reasoning is required to process base-rate information, whereas diagnostic information is accessible to fast, intuitive (Type 1) processing…

Evidence evaluation is a crucial process in many human activities, spanning from medical diagnosis to impression formation. The present experiments investigated which, if any, normative model best conforms to people's intuition about the value of the obtained evidence. Psychologists, epistemologists, and philosophers of science have proposed…

This paper reports on one aspect of a wider study that investigated a selection of final year pre-service primary teachers' responses to four probability tasks. The tasks focused on foundational ideas of probability including sample space, independence, variation and expectation. Responses suggested that strongly held intuitions appeared to…

Early childhood teachers may differ regarding the knowledge base they use when making professional decisions. In this study two orientations are distinguished: the orientation towards scientific knowledge vs. the orientation towards intuition and subjective experience. As different tracks in early childhood teacher education qualify for…

The paper discusses the interaction between intuitive biases of probabilistic thinking and mathematical knowledge. It would appear that students may answer numerical problems correctly but falter on simple descriptive solutions. Students appear to relinquish formal knowledge for simpler heuristics when attempting to describe the outcome of an…

This article explores the intuitions of secondary education majors regarding probability. This is accomplished by administering a two-question instrument to 113 participants. Their responses to these questions, and more importantly the explanations they provide for these answers, are analysed. The conclusions drawn may be informative to teachers…

What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable…