Using administrative data from an urban school district, two series of predictive models were tested for their ability to project a student's high school graduation status. The models included student grades, attendance, behavior, demographic predictors, and school-level variables. Eighth and ninth-grade variables were tested for two graduation…

Over the last 100 years, the overwhelming majority of Americans have attended this nation's public schools. There are clearly documented deleterious effects for students who do not successfully graduate from high school. Further, scholars and practitioners have recognized the adverse impacts on communities and the economy. Unfortunately, Colorado…

Dropout remains a persistent challenge within high school education. In this paper, we present a case study on automatically detecting whether a student is at-risk of dropout within a diverse school district in Texas. We predict whether a student will drop out in a future school year from data on students' discipline, attendance, course-taking,…

Ninth grade is a critical juncture for students--and can be a jarring transition. Even students a strong track record in the middle grades can experience academic difficulty, and those who enter high school with poor course grades, weak attendance, or behavior problems are especially at risk. An early misstep can have lasting implications:…

In partnership with the Midwest Dropout Prevention Research Alliance the study team used student-level data and a five-step process to identify the most accurate indicators of students' failure to graduate from high school on time. Student-level data came from attendance records, transcripts, and discipline records of grade 8 and 9 students in…

This study analyzed data on students in three Ohio school districts who had completed grades 8 and 9 to determine which data elements were the most accurate indicators of students' failure to graduate from high school on time. The most accurate indicators varied by district and grade level, which underscores the importance of having school systems…

Education is one of the strongest predictors of health worldwide. In South Africa, school dropout is a crisis where by Grade 12, only 52% of the age appropriate population remain enrolled. Survival analysis was used to identify the risk of dropping out of secondary school for male and female adolescents and examine the influence of substance use…

Dropping out of high school has negative results and implications for individuals and society. The likelihood of dropping out is attributed to both social and academic risk factors. Poor high school attendance, low course completion, and low grade-point-average (GPA) have been identified as three leading indicators that students are at risk for…

Over the past decade, research on dropout prevention has become focused on using evidence-based practice, and data-driven decisions, to mitigate students' dropping out of high school and instead, support and prepare students for career and college. Early warning systems or on-track indicators, in which readily available student-level data are used…

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

In 2007, spurred by University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research (UChicago CCSR) research reports, leadership at the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) began a new targeted approach to reducing course failure in the ninth grade. The research suggested that the transition between eighth and ninth grade played a critical role in shaping…

An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

This Technical Brief presents an historical analysis of key indicators of dropout for Delaware students in grades 9-12. Cut points for key risk indicators of high school dropout for the State of Delaware are provided. Using data provided by the Delaware Department of Education (DDOE), relationships between student dropout and several student…