Causal inference involves determining whether a treatment (e.g., an education program) causes a change in outcomes (e.g., academic achievement). It is well-known that causal effects are more challenging to estimate than associations. Over the past 50 years, the potential outcomes framework has become one of the most widely used approaches for…

Too often, statistical inference and probability are treated in schools like they are unrelated. In this paper, we describe how we supported students to learn about the role of probability in making inferences with variable data by building models of real world events and using them to simulate repeated samples.

State-wide tests are designed to measure student overall ability on grade-level standards. School leaders want fine-grained information on student performance to inform curriculum and instruction. One currently used target scoring method, which compares student scores to expected values is currently used to give this feedback to schools, but there…

Employing a statistical modeling inspired pedagogy is becoming a widespread practice in the statistics education community. Many have incorporated the practice of formulating conjectures in their modeling-enhanced educational designs and have reported on its benefits. We further elucidate the mechanism through which students' conjecturing may be…

This study examines the development of learning designs based on Realistic Mathematics Education (RME) on the probability topic at the eighth-grade junior high school level. Probability abounds in everyday life, and the RME approach is believed to develop students' mathematical communication skills. This learning design development used the Plomp…

The frequentist and classical models of probability provide students with different lenses through which they can view probability. Prior research showed that students may bridge these two lenses through instructional designs that begin with a clear connection between the two, such as coin tossing. Considering that this connection is not always…

With the rapid emergence of K-12 online learning platforms, a new era of education has been opened up. It is crucial to have a dropout warning framework to preemptively identify K-12 students who are at risk of dropping out of the online courses. Prior researchers have focused on predicting dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), which…

The research shared in this conference paper report illustrates how an iterative process to item development that involves expert review and cognitive lab interviews with students can be used to collect evidence of validity for assessment items. Analysis of students' reasoning was also used to expand a model for identifying conceptions and…

According to our approach to mathematics education, the optimal aim of the teaching of mathematics is to assist students in achieving efficient mathematical work. But, what does efficient exactly mean in that case? And how can teachers reach this objective? The model of Mathematical Working Spaces with its three dimensions--semiotic, instrumental,…

Recent methods to improve generalizations from nonrandom samples typically invoke assumptions such as the strong ignorability of sample selection, which is challenging to meet in practice. Although researchers acknowledge the difficulty in meeting this assumption, point estimates are still provided and used without considering alternative…

The present study examined the ability of content domain (algebra, geometry, rational number, probability) to classify mathematics misconceptions. The study was conducted with 1,133 students in 53 algebra and geometry classes taught by 17 teachers from three high schools and one middle school across three school districts in a Midwestern state.…

Objective. To examine temporal changes in the correlates of experimental and current e-cigarette use and associations with tobacco quit attempts. Method. Repeated cross-sectional analyses of data from the 2011 (n = 17,741), 2012 (n = 23,194), and 2013 (n = 16,858) National Youth Tobacco Surveys--a nationally representative sample of U.S. middle…

Energy plays a central role in our society, so it is essential that all citizens understand what energy is and how it moves and changes form. However, research has shown that students of all ages have difficulty understanding these abstract concepts. This paper presents a summary of elementary, middle, and high school students' understanding of…

Modeling using mathematics and making inferences about mathematical situations are becoming more prevalent in most fields of study. Descriptive statistics cannot be used to generalize about a population or make predictions of what can occur. Instead, inference must be used. Simulation and sampling are essential in building a foundation for…

Real-world phenomena simulation models, which can be used to engage middle-school students with probability, are described. Links to R instructional material and easy-to-use code are provided to facilitate implementation in the classroom.