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ERIC Number: ED656928
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2021-Sep-28
Pages: N/A
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Fulfilling the Promise?: Studying the Impact of the Oregon Promise Financial Aid Program Using a Regression Discontinuity Design
Michelle Hodara; Leah Childress
Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness
Background: Promise programs are place-based financial aid awards that seek to promote postsecondary attainment by covering all or nearly all college tuition costs. In 2015 Oregon became the second state in the country after Tennessee to implement a statewide promise program (Higher Education Coordinating Commission [HECC], 2020). Oregon Promise has many distinct features from other promise programs (see Perna & Leigh, 2018). Thus, despite the growing body of evidence on promise programs, continued evaluation of specific programs is valuable because program models vary widely and findings for one program cannot generalize to other programs. Purpose: The study addresses the following two questions--(1) Which public high school seniors in 2015/16 and 2016/17 did Oregon Promise reach and serve in the first two years of the program? (2) What were the impacts of the offer of an Oregon Promise award on public high school graduates' college enrollment, first-year persistence, and longer-term persistence or completion? Setting & Population: The study focuses on Oregon public high school seniors in the 2015/16 and 2016/17 academic years (n = 95,579). For the regression discontinuity design (RDD), research question 2 is limited to 2015/16 high school graduates from Portland metro area school districts (n = 7,988). Program: In the first two years, Oregon Promise awards covered the average cost of community college tuition and were available to public high school students who graduated from high school and earned a 2.5 cumulative grade point average (GPA) or higher. To receive the Oregon Promise award, eligible applicants had to enroll in one of Oregon's 17 community colleges within six months of completing high school. Research Design: To address the first question, the study examines the extent to which applicants reflected the characteristics of all seniors in 2015/16 and 2016/17 to assess program reach. The study also examines differences in applicants, eligible applicants, and recipients in the first year compared to the second year when an income eligibility requirement was introduced. Additionally, using GPA data from districts in the Portland metro area, this study is the first to explore how the number and characteristics of potential applicants might be expected to change if the GPA eligibility requirement were lowered. (The Oregon Legislature is considering lowering the Oregon Promise GPA requirement to 2.0 in the 2021 legislative session [H.B. 2093, Or., 2021].) To address the second question, this study uses quasi-experimental methods to estimate the impacts of the program on high school graduates' college enrollment, persistence, and completion at any institution across the country. This study is the first to examine longer-term impacts of Oregon Promise on college persistence and completion. Data Collection and Analysis: The study draws on statewide K-12 records from the Oregon Department of Education; postsecondary records from the National Student Clearinghouse; Oregon Promise application data from HECC; and unweighted cumulative high school GPA data from school districts in the Portland metro area. The three largest districts in the Portland metro area provided GPA data: Portland Public Schools, Beaverton School District, and Hillsboro School District. These three districts educate nearly one-fifth of Oregon public school students. To answer research question 1, the study team conducted descriptive analyses, comparing mean statistics for various groups. To answer research question 2, the study team used a fuzzy RDD. The analysis restricted the sample to 2015/16 high school graduates in the Portland metro area who earned a final GPA right around the 2.5 cutoff and then identified whether the offer of an award had an impact on their postsecondary outcomes, accounting for student characteristics and district. This design takes advantage of the fact that students are very similar around the 2.5 GPA cutoff (mean differences between students right below and at/above the cutoff were all less than 0.25 standard deviations), and the McCrary test demonstrated no clear manipulation of GPA, or nonrandom sorting, around the 2.5 cutoff. To confirm findings from the main approach, the study team also used a matched comparison group design with the statewide sample: To construct the matched comparison group, the study team identified students in the comparison group who were likely to be eligible for an award based on student characteristics. The study team then used a regression model that weighted individuals with a similar likelihood of being an eligible Oregon Promise applicant more heavily than students with a low likelihood of being an eligible Oregon Promise applicant to estimate the relationship between award offer and postsecondary outcomes, accounting for all characteristics, as well as students' senior year and high school. Findings: Study findings cannot be shared until the study is released in fall 2021. Conclusions: The study demonstrates how adjustments to Oregon Promise income and grade point average requirements can change the number and composition of students who are offered an award. The findings also offer policy-relevant information about the effectiveness of the program in achieving its intended goal of promoting college success among recent high school graduates.
Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness. 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208. Tel: 202-495-0920; e-mail: contact@sree.org; Web site: https://www.sree.org/
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education; High Schools; Secondary Education; Two Year Colleges
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness (SREE)
Identifiers - Location: Oregon
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A