This document presents a review of evidence commissioned by the Education Endowment Foundation to inform the guidance document "Improving Mathematics in Key Stages Two and Three" (Education Endowment Foundation, 2017). The review draws on a substantial parallel study by the same research team, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, which…

Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…

Until recently, norms of experimental reasoning have lacked systematic theoretical development. Thus, it has been easy for psychologists like Tversky and Kahneman to misclassify certain human reasoning processes as being Pascalian and invalid, rather than as being Baconian and valid. (CP)

Presents research findings related to students' intuitive ideas about the concepts of chance to inform teachers how students form their concepts of probability and statistics. Discusses adolescents' conceptions of uncertainty, judgmental heuristics in making estimates of event likelihood, the conjunction fallacy, the outcome approach, attempts to…

Reviews research indicating that students' cognitive models hold random events to be equiprobable Examined 87 students between the ages of 15 and 17 to determine whether masking a random event using geometric figures would affect the students' view of the event as equiprobable. Results indicated that masking overcame the equiprobable bias of the…