Causal inference involves determining whether a treatment (e.g., an education program) causes a change in outcomes (e.g., academic achievement). It is well-known that causal effects are more challenging to estimate than associations. Over the past 50 years, the potential outcomes framework has become one of the most widely used approaches for…

Comparative Judgement (CJ) aims to improve the quality of performance-based assessments by letting multiple assessors judge pairs of performances. CJ is generally associated with high levels of reliability, but there is also a large variation in reliability between assessments. This study investigates which assessment characteristics influence the…

Meta-analyses of clinical trials targeting rare events face particular challenges when the data lack adequate numbers of events for all treatment arms. Especially when the number of studies is low, standard random-effects meta-analysis methods can lead to serious distortions because of such data sparsity. To overcome this, we suggest the use of…

Motivated by our meta-analytic dataset involving survival rates after treatment for critical leg ischemia, we develop and apply a new multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times. Our data set involves 50 studies that provide mortality rates at up to seven time points, which we model simultaneously, and…

In suspected child sexual abuse some professionals recommend multiple child interviews to increase the likelihood of disclosure or more details to improve decision-making and increase convictions. We modeled the yield of a policy of routinely conducting multiple child interviews and increased convictions. Our decision tree reflected the path of a…

This paper asserts that causality is an intriguing but controversial topic in philosophy, statistics, and educational and psychological research. By supporting the Causal Markov Condition and the faithfulness condition, Clark Glymour attempted to draw causal inferences from structural equation modeling. According to Glymour, in order to make…

Presents an overview of Rasch measurement models that begins with a conceptualization of continuous experiences often captured as discrete observations. Discusses the mathematical properties of the Rasch family of models that allow the transformation of discrete deterministic counts into continuous probabilistic abstractions. Also discusses six of…

This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…

An interdisciplinary course in problem solving, entitled "patterns of problem solving," and its unique peer program offered at the University of California, Los Angeles, are described. The emphasis in the subject matter and approach is to expose the student to the wide range of alternative problem solving techniques and to enable the…

This article explores the potential of Bayesian inference as a theoretical framework for describing how people evaluate hypotheses. First, it identifies a set of logically possible forms of non-Bayesian behavior. Second, it reviews existing research in a variety of areas to see whether these possibilities are ever realized. (Author/BW)

The present article reviews the procedures that have been developed for measuring the reliability of human observers' judgments when making direct observations of behavior. These include the percentage of agreement, Cohen's Kappa, phi, and univariate and multivariate agreement measures that are based on quasi-equiprobability and quasi-independence…

Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

A recent recommendation by Holt (EJ 200 576) that coefficients resulting from estimating log-linear and similar models should not be interpreted is argued to be based on lack of clarity about the substantive and theoretical importance of the choice between dummy and effect coding for categorical variables. (Author/GDC)

Reports on a test of the applicability of the theory of General Scalability to documents in terms of transitivity, substitutability, and independence. Implications for the construction of test collections in information retrieval research are examined. (24 references) (EAM)

An evolved form of the Edwards and Beckworth (1989) model for probability selection for Scholastic Achievement Test takers using truncated normal distributions is presented. It is shown that the arguments of Holland and Wainer are not sufficient to reject this model. (SLD)