This study examined bias reduction in the eight nonequivalent comparison group designs (NECGDs) that result from combining (a) choice of a local versus non-local comparison group, and analytic use or not of (b) a pretest measure of the study outcome and (c) a rich set of other covariates. Bias was estimated as the difference in causal estimate…

In a traditional regression-discontinuity design (RDD), units are assigned to treatment on the basis of a cutoff score and a continuous assignment variable. The treatment effect is measured at a single cutoff location along the assignment variable. This article introduces the multivariate regression-discontinuity design (MRDD), where multiple…

Although evaluators often use an interrupted time series (ITS) design to test hypotheses about program effects, there are few empirical tests of the design's validity. We take a randomized experiment on an educational topic and compare its effects to those from a comparative ITS (CITS) design that uses the same treatment group as the experiment…

The sharp regression discontinuity design (RDD) has three key weaknesses compared to the randomized clinical trial (RCT). It has lower statistical power, it is more dependent on statistical modeling assumptions, and its treatment effect estimates are limited to the narrow subpopulation of cases immediately around the cutoff, which is rarely of…

Legitimate knowledge claims about causation have been a central concern among evaluators and applied researchers for several decades and often have been the subject of heated debates. In recent years these debates have resurfaced with a renewed intensity, due in part to the priority currently being given to randomized experiments by many funders…

Some form of a short interrupted time series (ITS) is often used to evaluate state and national programs. An ITS design with a single treatment group assumes that the pretest functional form can be validly estimated and extrapolated into the postintervention period where it provides a valid counterfactual. This assumption is problematic. Ambiguous…

This study uses within-study comparisons to assess the relative importance of covariate choice, unreliability in the measurement of these covariates, and whether regression or various forms of propensity score analysis are used to analyze the outcome data. Two of the within-study comparisons are of the four-arm type, and many more are of the…

This paper analyzes 12 recent within-study comparisons contrasting causal estimates from a randomized experiment with those from an observational study sharing the same treatment group. The aim is to test whether different causal estimates result when a counterfactual group is formed, either with or without random assignment, and when statistical…