Public administrators are deeply affected by the global crisis in public finances. As public sector revenues remain weak and demand increases for spending and debt reduction, as well as tax reform, the newest cadre of public administration students must learn how to face the challenge of substantial uncertainty in public finances, regardless of…

In this article, the author discusses the use in policy analysis of models that incorporate uncertainty. He believes that all models should consider incorporating uncertainty, but that at the same time it is important to understand that sampling variability is not usually the dominant driver of uncertainty in policy analyses. He also argues that…