Post-instrument covariates are often included as controls in instrumental variable (IV) analyses to address a violation of the exclusion restriction. However, we show that such analyses are subject to biases unless strong assumptions hold. Using linear constant-effects models, we present asymptotic bias formulas for three estimators (with and…

Researchers tasked with understanding the effects of educational technology innovations face the challenge of providing evidence of causality. Given the complexities of studying learning in authentic contexts interwoven with technological affordances, conducting tightly-controlled randomized experiments is not always feasible nor desirable. Today,…

The present work focuses on the performance of two types of shrinkage priors--the horseshoe prior and the recently developed regularized horseshoe prior--in the context of inducing sparsity in path analysis and growth curve models. Prior research has shown that these horseshoe priors induce sparsity by at least as much as the "gold…

This primer systematizes the emerging literature on causal inference using deep neural networks under the potential outcomes framework. It provides an intuitive introduction to building and optimizing custom deep learning models and shows how to adapt them to estimate/predict heterogeneous treatment effects. It also discusses ongoing work to…

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method widely used in educational research to investigate relationships between variables. SEM models are typically constructed based on theoretical foundations and assessed through fit indices. However, a well-fitting SEM model alone is not sufficient to verify the causal inferences underlying…

Sensitivity analysis, a statistical method crucial for validating inferences across disciplines, quantifies the conditions that could alter conclusions (Razavi et al., 2021). One line of work is rooted in linear models and foregrounds the sensitivity of inferences to the strength of omitted variables (Cinelli & Hazlett, 2019; Frank, 2000). A…

Causal inference is a central topic in education research, although oftentimes it relies on observational studies, which makes causal identification methodologically challenging. This manuscript introduces causal graphs as a powerful language for elucidating causal theories and an effective tool for causal identification analysis. It discusses…

This article uses the interventionist theory of causation, a counterfactual theory taken from philosophy of science, to strengthen causal analysis in process tracing research. Causal claims from process tracing are re-expressed in terms of so-called hypothetical interventions, and concrete evidential tests are proposed which are shown to…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

This paper presents a model of recurrent multinomial sequences. Though there exists a quite considerable literature on modeling autocorrelation in numerical data and sequences of categorical outcomes, there is currently no systematic method of modeling patterns of recurrence in categorical sequences. This paper develops a means of discovering…

As evidence from evaluation and experimental studies continue to influence decision and policymaking, applied researchers and practitioners require tools to derive valid and credible inferences. Over the past several decades, research in causal inference has progressed with the development and application of propensity scores. Since their…

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are now a popular tool to inform causal inferences. We discuss how DAGs can also be used to encode theoretical assumptions about nonprobability samples and survey nonresponse and to determine whether population quantities including conditional distributions and regressions can be identified. We describe sources of…

This article introduces a collection of four datasets, similar to Anscombe's quartet, that aim to highlight the challenges involved when estimating causal effects. Each of the four datasets is generated based on a distinct causal mechanism: the first involves a collider, the second involves a confounder, the third involves a mediator, and the…

Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is an empirical research method that has gained some popularity in the social sciences. At the same time, the literature has long been convinced that QCA is prone to committing causal fallacies when confronted with non-causal data. More specifically, beyond a certain case-to-factor ratio, the method is…