Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) continues to be interested in addressing the issue identified by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). With the release of the 2009 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) reading and mathematics assessments, NCES again had the opportunity to measure the status and change in…

The problem of forecasting monthly demands for library network services is considered in terms of using forecasts as inputs to policy analysis models, and in terms of using forecasts to aid in the making of budgeting and staffing decisions. Box-Jenkins time-series methodology, adaptive filtering, and regression approaches are examined and compared…

A model for predicting student credit hours (SCH) over a 2-year period was developed at the University of South Florida. A major application of the model would be to estimate the expected loss of upper-level SCH that would occur as a result of reduced lower-level enrollment. Attention was focused on the long-range effect of lower-level enrollment…

Bayesian methods for estimating dose response curves in quantal bioassay are studied. A linearized multi-stage model is assumed for the shape of the curves. A Gibbs sampling approach with data augmentation is employed to compute the Bayes estimates. In addition, estimation of the "relative additional risk" and the "risk specific…

The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive…

Although a number of studies have been conducted to examine the status attainment process, very few have focused on differences in educational attainment for black, white, and Hispanic females. The primary purpose of this study was to test predictive models of attainment for these subgroups. Variables considered potentially important to the…

In forecasting its fall credit headcounts, the Office of Institutional Research and Analysis at Prince George's Community College (PGCC) utilizes the Component Yield Method (CYM), an enrollment projection model developed by the college's planning analyst in the early 1980's. By disaggregating enrolled students into multiple groups, each with an…

A highly technical report describes higher education forecasting procedures used by the State Education Department of New York at Albany to project simulated college enrollments for New York State from 1978-1994. Basic components of the projections--generated for full- and part-time undergraduates, full- and part-time graduates, and…

Having low literacy skills could impact everything from reading a newspaper and balancing a checkbook to wise consumer decisions and job advancement. This study estimates adult literacy measures for Cuyahoga County, Ohio and its municipalities. It is also important to have a sense of how many children are at risk for developing literacy problems…