Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

This brief describes the impact of the Montgomery County (Maryland) Public Schools (MCPS) 2007-2008 full-day Head Start prekindergarten (pre-K) class model on student academic performance, cognitive skills, and learning behaviors by the end of Grade 2. This is the fourth impact study of the MCPS full-day Head Start pre-K class model. The following…

The Florida Center for Reading Research (FCRR) Reading Assessment (FRA) consists of computer-adaptive reading comprehension and oral language screening tasks that provide measures to track growth over time, as well as a Probability of Literacy Success (PLS) linked to grade-level performance (i.e., the 50th percentile) on the reading comprehension…

Student employment subsidies are one of the largest types of federal employment subsidies, and one of the oldest forms of student aid. Yet it is unclear whether they help or harm students' long term outcomes. This document contains the appendices to the report "Should Student Employment Be Subsidized? Conditional Counterfactuals and the…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used in bioinformatics, speech recognition and many other areas. This note presents HMMs via the framework of classical Markov chain models. A simple example is given to illustrate the model. An estimation method for the transition probabilities of the hidden states is also discussed.

An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

This report analyzes the relationship of Advanced Placement Program® (AP®) teacher practices and student performance on AP Biology and AP U.S. History Exams. Using a national survey of AP teachers, the study developed four models for each subject with public school teachers only and both public and nonpublic school teachers, using two standards of…

This paper describes the development, implementation, and evaluation of an automated system for predicting the acceptability status of candidate reading-comprehension stimuli extracted from a database of journal and magazine articles. The system uses a combination of classification and regression techniques to predict the probability that a given…

The psychometric research done by G. Rasch between 1951 and 1959, which is explained and illustrated in this book, takes psychometrics from being purely descriptive to being a science of objective measurement. Individual centered statistics require models in which each individual is characterized separately and from which, given adequate data,…

The purpose of this study was to determine what, or part of what, makes academic success probable or improbable for a student. The core research question was, Which practices, characteristics, and circumstances of students, families, schools, school districts, and communities tend to give Maine students a higher probability of meeting state…

This book shows the advantages of Rasch measurement (G. Rasch) for school district testing programs. The results of Rasch methods are contrasted with conventional statistics for assessing student responses to basic skills testing. Chapter 1 shows how the Rasch probability-based method produces measures that are more useful for students, parents,…

This volume contains tables of item analysis results obtained by following procedures associated with the Rasch Model for those reading tests used in the Anchor Test Study. Appendix I gives the test names and their corresponding analysis code numbers. Section I (Basic Item Analyses) presents data for the item analysis of each test in a two part…

Data taken primarily from the Australian Youth Survey were used to model unemployment as a function of personal characteristics, family structure, and neighborhood composition using binomial probit estimation techniques. The cross-sectional model developed indicated that significant neighborhood effects on unemployment outcomes exist in high- and…