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Peer reviewedTversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel – Psychological Review, 1983
Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…
Descriptors: Cognitive Processes, Error Patterns, Evaluative Thinking, Heuristics
Direct linkTrafimow, David – Psychological Review, 2005
In their comment on D. Trafimow, M. D. Lee and E. Wagenmakers argued that the requisite probabilities to use in Bayes's theorem can always be found. In the present reply, the author asserts that M. D. Lee and E. Wagenmakers use a problematic assumption and that finding the requisite probabilities is not straightforward. After describing the…
Descriptors: Probability, Bayesian Statistics, Error Patterns, Criticism
