The COVID-19 pandemic revealed that many countries have failed to provide the general population with the cognitive tools to thoroughly understand and cope with a global health crisis. While scientists and leaders worldwide have struggled to discover ways to contain the spread of the virus, this difficult task has become overwhelming due to the…

On the basis of the statistical concept of waiting time and on computer simulations of the "probabilities of nonoccurrence" (p. 457) for random sequences, Hahn and Warren (2009) proposed that given people's experience of a finite data stream from the environment, the gambler's fallacy is not as gross an error as it might seem. We deal with two…

An integration of two different approaches to the psychology of causal induction is proposed that overcomes the problems associated with each. The proposal results in a causal power theory of the probabilistic contrast model of P. W. Cheng and L. R. Novick (1990). (SLD)

Presents a formal method for making important one-shot decisions based on an elimination process which uses sequentially acquired information and is based on a conditional belief structure. The routine updating of the structure as information accumulates is based on Dempster's rule of combination. (15 references) (EAM)

Modeling the process by which participants are selected into groups, rather than adjusting for preexisting group differences, provides the basis for several new approaches to the analysis of data from nonrandomized studies. Econometric approaches, the propensity scores approach, and the relative assignment variable approach to the modeling of…

Discusses the meaning of information in terms of Shannon's mathematical theory of communication and the concept of uncertainty. The uncertainty associated with the transmission of the signal is argued to have more significance for information science than the uncertainty associated with the selection of a message from a set of possible messages.…