The problem of modeling information systems is studied with a focus on predictability. Syntactic, semantic, and pragmatic criteria are discussed, and 11 references are cited. (Author/BK)

To predict suicide, explicit causal models of suicide outcome are needed in which predictors are temporally ordered and then tested statistically. Because suicide is a dichotomous, nominal scale outcome, only certain statistics for prediction are appropriate. Logistic regression, which utilizes the likelihood ratio test of statistical inference,…

Describes and compares eight methods of estimating the parameters of the Zipf distribution. (CLB)

Argues that the gamma mixture of Poisson processes, for all its perceived defects, can be used to make predictions regarding future library book circulations of a quality adequate for general management requirements. The use of the model is extensively illustrated with data from two academic libraries. (Nine references) (CLB)

The author deals with limitations on the use of work samples as predictors of vocational success of the disabled. The predictive model is briefly reviewed and ways in which the assumptions underlying this model can be violated or altered in vocational evaluation settings are described. (Author)

Describes an expected precision (EP) measure designed to predict document retrieval performance. Highlights include decision theoretic models; precision and recall as measures of system performance; EP graphs; relevance feedback; and computing the retrieval status value of a document for two models, the Binary Independent Model and the Two Poisson…

In their meta-analysis of clinical versus statistical prediction models, Aegisdottir et al. (this issue) extended previous findings of statistical-method superiority across such variables as clinicians' experience and familiarity with data. In this reaction, the authors are particularly interested in violence prediction, which yields the greatest…

A decision-making or utility theory model (which deals effectively with affirmative action goals and allows standardized tests to be placed in the service of those goals) is discussed as an alternative to traditional predictive admissions. (Author/PN)

The problem of finding a meaningful way of demonstrating the benefit or satisfaction to be gained by using predictive assessment techniques to select or place individuals in work situations is explored. The urgent need of developing nations for appropriate occupational and educational selection procedures is presented and explained. A discussion…

A model for analyzing policy impacts is presented that will assist state-level policy makers in education. The model comprises four stages: (1) monitoring, which includes the identification of relevant trends and issues and the development of a data base; (2) forecasting, which uses quantitative and qualitative techniques developed in futures…

In this rejoinder, the authors respond to the insightful commentary of Strohmer and Arm, Chwalisz, and Hilton, Harris, and Rice about the meta-analysis on statistical versus clinical prediction techniques for mental health judgments. The authors address issues including the availability of statistical prediction techniques for real-life psychology…

This paper explores the need for a better understanding of the influences of prices and student aid on student enrollment and college budgets. The theory of net price has not been found to adequately explain changes in enrollment. Based on a critical review of recent research on student price response, this paper develops an alternative approach…

This paper examines the applicability of net tuition revenue models for a highly selective, elite priced, private research university in the southern U.S. Pricing and aid strategies for this university seem to be driven by intuitive assumptions about the economy, market forces, needs-blind admissions, student satisfaction, net price…

A theoretical model for predicting medical student achievement (HE 528 467) is reviewed and found to be a significant improvement over previous predictive studies, to well illustrate the use of structural equation modeling in medical education research, and to offer an approach to practical research problems with potential to increase the…

The purpose of the study was to compare two regression-based approaches for measuring educational effectiveness in Tennessee high schools: the mean residual approach (MR), and a more general linear models (LM) approach. Data were obtained from a sample of 1,011 students who were enrolled in 48 high schools, and who had taken the Comprehensive…