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Direct linkGriffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B. – Cognition, 2007
People's reactions to coincidences are often cited as an illustration of the irrationality of human reasoning about chance. We argue that coincidences may be better understood in terms of rational statistical inference, based on their functional role in processes of causal discovery and theory revision. We present a formal definition of…
Descriptors: Probability, Statistical Inference, Bayesian Statistics, Theories
Peer reviewedCheng, Patricia W. – Psychological Review, 1997
An integration of two different approaches to the psychology of causal induction is proposed that overcomes the problems associated with each. The proposal results in a causal power theory of the probabilistic contrast model of P. W. Cheng and L. R. Novick (1990). (SLD)
Descriptors: Causal Models, Etiology, Mathematical Models, Probability
