The COVID-19 pandemic revealed that many countries have failed to provide the general population with the cognitive tools to thoroughly understand and cope with a global health crisis. While scientists and leaders worldwide have struggled to discover ways to contain the spread of the virus, this difficult task has become overwhelming due to the…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…

Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…

From past knowledge of Ziegler's and Phillipson's work, the author knew before reading the manuscript that there would be significant conceptual disagreements. Yet, he was hoping to find enough points of convergence that they could lead to enriching exchanges and, maybe, future shared efforts at bridging gaps between their respective views.…

Wills and Pothos (2012) reviewed approaches to evaluating formal models of categorization, raising a series of worthwhile issues, challenges, and goals. Unfortunately, in discussing these issues and proposing solutions, Wills and Pothos (2012) did not consider Bayesian methods in any detail. This means not only that their review excludes a major…

The target paper by Barba (2012) raises issues that were the focus of the author's first two publications on operant variability. The author will describe the main findings in those papers and then discuss Barba's specific arguments. Barba has argued against the operant nature of variability. (Contains 2 figures.)

In this article, the authors provide a methodological critique of the current standard of value-added modeling forwarded in educational policy contexts as a means of measuring teacher effectiveness. Conventional value-added estimates of teacher quality are attempts to determine to what degree a teacher would theoretically contribute, on average,…

I discuss the recommendations and cautions in Steinley and Brusco's (2011) article on the use of finite models to cluster a data set. In their article, much use is made of comparison with the "K"-means procedure. As noted by researchers for over 30 years, the "K"-means procedure can be viewed as a special case of finite mixture modeling in which…

Bowers and Davis (2012) criticize Bayesian modelers for telling "just so" stories about cognition and neuroscience. Their criticisms are weakened by not giving an accurate characterization of the motivation behind Bayesian modeling or the ways in which Bayesian models are used and by not evaluating this theoretical framework against specific…

Steinley and Brusco (2011) presented the results of a huge simulation study aimed at evaluating cluster recovery of mixture model clustering (MMC) both for the situation where the number of clusters is known and is unknown. They derived rather strong conclusions on the basis of this study, especially with regard to the good performance of…

Tsetsos, Usher, and Chater (2010) presented several criticisms of decision field theory (DFT) involving its distance function, instability under externally controlled stopping times, and lack of robustness to various multialternative choice scenarios. Here, we counter those claims with a specification of a distance function based on the…

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 119(2) of Psychological Review (see record 2012-06153-001). In the article, incorrect versions of figures 3 and 6 were included. Also, Table 8 should have included the following information in the table footnote "P(A V) = probability of acquittal given unanimous verdict." All…

On the basis of the statistical concept of waiting time and on computer simulations of the "probabilities of nonoccurrence" (p. 457) for random sequences, Hahn and Warren (2009) proposed that given people's experience of a finite data stream from the environment, the gambler's fallacy is not as gross an error as it might seem. We deal with two…

This article contrasts 2 approaches to analyzing transitivity of preference and other behavioral properties in choice data. The approach of Regenwetter, Dana, and Davis-Stober (2011) assumes that on each choice, a decision maker samples randomly from a mixture of preference orders to determine whether "A" is preferred to "B." In contrast, Birnbaum…

If questioned about their beliefs, psychometricians in one camp would argue the firm conviction that the Rasch model is mathematically elegant and intuitive as well as plausible for practitioners, pointing out the advantages of a simple model that "counts" every item in the same way. Psychometricians of another camp would argue that the three…