This article proposes a latent variable regression four-level hierarchical model (LVR-HM4) that uses a fully Bayesian approach. Using multisite multiple-cohort longitudinal data, for example, annual assessment scores over grades for students who are nested within cohorts within schools, the LVR-HM4 attempts to simultaneously model two types of…

Can children reason the Bayesian way? We argue that the answer to this question depends on how numbers are represented, because a representation can do part of the computation. We test, for the first time, whether Bayesian reasoning can be elicited in children by means of natural frequencies. We show that when information was presented to fourth,…