Analyzes the Gambler's Fallacy, the perception of interdependence among events which are in fact unrelated. Describes how reasoning errors occur when the perceived interdependence influences predictions about subsequent events. Elaborates the distinction between Gambler's Fallacy and similar but sound reasoning strategies. (BH)

The underlying proposition for any experimental/therapeutic trial is the uncertainty that the risks of treatment will be outweighed by its benefits. For some therapeutic interventions (e.g., exercise programs, vitamin supplementation), the potential for treatment-emergent adverse events may prima facie be low or negligible, whereas for others…

Our department has redesigned its electrical and computer engineering programs by adopting a learning methodology based on competence development, problem solving, and the realization of design projects. In this article, we show how this pedagogical approach has been successfully used for learning probabilities and their application to computer…