This article is motivated by the importance of developing statistically literate students. The authors present a selection of problems that could be used to motivate student interest in probability as well as providing additional depth to the curriculum when used alongside traditional resources. The solutions presented utilise natural frequencies…

This article develops a set-theoretic approach to Bayes's theorem and Bayesian process tracing. In the approach, hypothesis testing is the procedure whereby one updates beliefs by narrowing the range of states of the world that are regarded as possible, thus diminishing the domain in which the actual world can reside. By explicitly connecting…

We address the problem of selecting the best of a set of units based on a criterion variable, when its value is recorded for every unit subject to estimation, measurement, or another source of error. The solution is constructed in a decision-theoretical framework, incorporating the consequences (ramifications) of the various kinds of error that…

The Reduced Reparameterized Unified Model (Reduced RUM) is a diagnostic classification model for educational assessment that has received considerable attention among psychometricians. However, the computational options for researchers and practitioners who wish to use the Reduced RUM in their work, but do not feel comfortable writing their own…

This chapter introduces three applications of Bayesian inference to common and novel issues in second language research. After a review of the critiques of conventional hypothesis testing, our focus centers on ways Bayesian inference can be used for dealing with missing data, for testing theory-driven substantive hypotheses without a default null…

This paper describes and evaluates the use of measurement decision theory (MDT) to classify examinees based on their item response patterns. The model has a simple framework that starts with the conditional probabilities of examinees in each category or mastery state responding correctly to each item. The presented evaluation investigates: (1) the…

The remarkable successes of the physical sciences have been built on highly general quantitative laws, which serve as the basis for understanding an enormous variety of specific physical systems. How far is it possible to construct universal principles in the cognitive sciences, in terms of which specific aspects of perception, memory, or decision…