This article advocates that introductory statistics be taught by basing all calculations on a single simple margin-of-error formula and deriving all of the standard introductory statistical concepts (confidence intervals, significance tests, comparisons of means and proportions, etc) from that one formula. It is argued that this approach will…

This brief paper introduces a new approach to assessing the trustworthiness of research comparisons when expressed numerically. The 'number needed to disturb' a research finding would be the number of counterfactual values that can be added to the smallest arm of any comparison before the difference or 'effect' size disappears, minus the number of…

Many developmental mathematics programs emphasize computational fluency with the assumption that this is a necessary contributor to student success in general studies mathematics. In an effort to determine which skills are most essential, scores on a computational fluency test were correlated with student success in general studies mathematics at…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value-added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

Recent calls for reporting and interpreting effect sizes have been numerous, with the 5th edition of the "Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association" (2001) calling for the inclusion of effect sizes to interpret quantitative findings. Many top journals have required that effect sizes accompany claims of statistical significance.…

We discuss the identification, estimation, and testing of structural equation models that have causal indicators. We first provide 2 rules of identification that are particularly helpful in models with causal indicators--the 2C emitted paths rule and the exogenous X rule. We demonstrate how these rules can help us distinguish identified from…

The present article provides a primer on using effect sizes in research. A small heuristic data set is used in order to make the discussion concrete. Additionally, various admonitions for best practice in reporting and interpreting effect sizes are presented. Among these is the admonition to not use Cohen's benchmarks for "small," "medium," and…

Extreme-value statistics is often used to estimate so-called return values (actually related to quantiles) for environmental quantities like wind speed or wave height. A basic method for estimation is the method of block maxima which consists in partitioning observations in blocks, where maxima from each block could be considered independent.…

Magnitude of effect (ME) statistics are an important alternative to statistical significance. Why methodologists encourage the use of ME indices as interpretation aids is explained, and different types of ME statistics are discussed. The basic concepts underlying effect size measures are reviewed, and how to compute them from published reports…

This paper summarizes an experiment conducted to examine the counting performance of 7- and 8-year-olds. Analysis of variance was computed on counting errors produced when enumerating a set of squares on a computer screen. The factors included in the analysis were age, gender, array size, error type, proximity, and error form. The primary…