During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…

The manuscript presents a Visual Basic[superscript R] for Applications function that operates within Microsoft Office Excel[superscript R] to return the area below the curve for a given F within a specified non-central F distribution. The function will be of use to Excel users without programming experience wherever a non-central F distribution is…

Polynomial loglinear models for one-, two-, and higher-way contingency tables have important applications to measurement and assessment. They are essentially regarded as a smoothing technique, which is commonly referred to as loglinear smoothing. A SAS IML (SAS Institute, 2002a) macro was created to implement loglinear smoothing according to…

Distinguishing between good and bad science is not easy. Evaluating whether or not a claim really is supported by good research is like buying a car. There is an optimal solution to the problem, which is to read and digest all of the relevant research, but most people do not have time to execute the optimal solution. What they need is a good…

We consider how probability theory can be used to increase one's chances of winning in the new television game show "The Colour of Money."

This paper articulates the opportunity of using an experimental business laboratory approach as a means of accelerating the creation, incubation and testing of new venture ideas. Such a strategy leads to the establishment of a micro-ecosystem of aspiring entrepreneurs and others in a business laboratory environment. The goal is to create a mini…

This methodological brief is designed to provide both program operators and researchers with practical advice about how to assess a program's implementation and impact. Adapted from an article that first appeared in "The Handbook of Youth Mentoring" (DuBois and Karcher, ed. 2005), the brief focuses on the evaluation of mentoring programs, but the…

This article presents a mathematical function for measuring the congruence among the strand representation in the enacted curriculum, state assessments, and district pacing guides. Using the Manhattan distance as its basis, this method allows researchers to incorporate the strand coverage of the enacted curriculum (i.e., the curriculum actually…

We describe a procedure for differentiating among potential precursor responses for use in a functional analysis. Conditional probability analysis of descriptive assessment data identified three potential precursors. Results from the indirect assessment corresponded with those obtained from the descriptive assessment. The top-ranked response…

A classroom exercise for undergraduate and beginning graduate students that takes about one class period is proposed and discussed. It is an easy, interesting exercise that demonstrates important aspects of sampling techniques (sample amount, particle size, and the representativeness of the sample in relation to the bulk material). The exercise…

This article describes a course redesign project at the University of North Texas that is in the fifth year of a planned nine-year effort. The goals of the Next Generation Course Redesign (NGen) Project include practicing "never-ending course redesign," affecting teaching and learning at all levels of the institution and beyond, and…