Institutional staff such as enrollment managers, business officers, and institutional researchers are often asked to predict enrollments. Developing any predictive model can be intimidating, particularly when there is no textbook to follow. This paper provides a practical framework for generating enrollment projection options and for evaluating…

The hard choices that must be made to balance budgets at higher education institutions can be painful and have dramatic consequences that may linger for years. If enrollment projections and therefore tuition income/budgeting projections for future years are inaccurate, then the result may be unnecessary or insufficient budget reductions, both of…

Presents a model to assist in long-range forecasting of enrollments in institutions of higher education. (WD)

Describes the development of two enrollment management tools: (1) a student-tracking model designed to monitor and report on student transitions through the educational experience; and (2) a near-term student enrollment-forecasting model. Follows a fictional class for several years to illustrate the tools. (EV)

In a large metropolitan research university, multiple enrollment models are required to fulfill the needs of the many constituents and planning horizons. In addition, the method of predicting enrollment in a growth environment differs from that of universities in a stable environment. Three models for predicting enrollment are discussed, with a…

Implementing an enrollment projection methodology and a planning methodology in a school district is often a complex problem because many possibilities exist. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that successful research techniques used by some school districts can instruct other districts about methods and aims to pursue or avoid in…

A review of the literature concerning local school roll forecasting describes the theoretical model common to most local education agency (LEA) forecasts, identifies a variety of issues relevant to this area of LEA planning, and suggests some opportunities for improvement in LEA school roll forecasting. (Author/CB)

A model using four categories of college applicants (enrollment deposit paid, deposit not yet paid, applicants not yet admitted, and those who have not yet applied) that allows forecasting of freshman enrollment from any point in the admission process and simulates the effects of trends and strategies on enrollment is outlined. (MSE)

Introduces a model for estimating the amount of revenue a typical student will bring to an institution of higher education. The model uses event history analysis to analyze the length of time a typical student will remain enrolled, and then uses this estimate in combination with tuition numbers to arrive at revenue estimates. (EV)

Personnel at the College of Lake County (CLC) developed a projections model for student enrollment that satisfies the need for information for budget projections and for planning purposes. CLC is a medium-sized suburban community college located north of Chicago. The Enrollment Management Team was asked to create a process to project enrollments…

A model and implementation process is presented for projecting student headcount and credit hour and contact hour enrollment for each academic area and all areas aggregated by semester and fiscal year for each campus of Montgomery College, Maryland. The projection model is suggested as a managerial tool to assist the college's management to…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

Describes Albuquerque (New Mexico) Public Schools' development of a model to forecast enrollment growth. Recommendations include studying local demographics, seeking clues to future development, examining the age of neighborhoods, adding up rental property, and developing strong professional relationships with city planners, real estate…

An enrollment projection model designed and implemented at LaSalle College had five phases: establishing clear goals, model construction, model implementation, model estimation and validation, and using the forecast. The history of LaSalle's model and the elements in decision making are outlined. (MSE)

Technical specifications, operating procedures, and reference information for the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems' (NCHEMS) Student Flow Model (SFM) computer programs are presented. Included are narrative descriptions of the system and its modules, specific program documentation for each of the modules, system flowcharts,…