Human memory has been thoroughly studied and modeled in psychology, but mainly in laboratory setting under simplified conditions. For application in practical adaptive educational systems we need simple and robust models which can cope with aspects like varied prior knowledge or multiple-choice questions. We discuss and evaluate several models of…

A great deal of research in educational data mining is geared towards predicting student performance. Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Performance Factors Analysis, and the different variations of these have been introduced and have had some success at predicting student knowledge. It is worth noting, however, that very little has been done to…

Conventional pundits, pollsters, and forecasters are focused on whether the economy will improve sufficiently in 2012 for President Barack Obama to gain reelection. The Keys to the White House, a prediction system that the author developed in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, founder of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction…

The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

This article outlines shortcomings of currently used university admissions tests and discusses ways in which they could potentially be improved, summarizing two projects designed to enhance college and university admissions. The projects were inspired by the augmented theory of successful intelligence, according to which successful intelligence…

We develop a model of induced innovation that applies to medical research. Our model yields three empirical predictions. First, initial death rates and subsequent research effort should be positively correlated. Second, research effort should be associated with more rapid mortality declines. Third, as a byproduct of targeting the most common…

A method for point and interval estimation of change in criterion validity of multiple-component measuring instruments as a result of revision is outlined. The procedure is developed within the framework of covariance structure modeling, which complements earlier methods for testing change in composite reliability due to addition or deletion of…

This article describes the early outcomes of an ongoing project at the University of South Florida in Tampa that involves using a logistics regression formula derived from pre-matriculation characteristics to predict the risk of individual student attrition. In this piece, the authors will describe the results of the prediction formula and the…

For more than two decades, the enrollment funnel has shaped how enrollment managers planned their enrollment strategies. It was a reliable, effective model for enrollment behavior, and campuses could shape their strategies around it. In recent years, however, demographic changes as well as technological advances have rendered the traditional…

The distinction between automatic processes and controlled processes is a central organizational theme across areas of psychology. However, this dichotomy conceals important differences among qualitatively different processes that independently contribute to ongoing behavior. The Quadruple process model is a multinomial model that provides…

In this article, I specify a conceptual framework for test validity research on content assessments taken by English language learners (ELLs) in U.S. schools in grades K-12. This framework is modeled after one previously delineated by Willingham et al. (1988), which was developed to guide research on students with disabilities. In this framework…

This paper presents a model for the identification and validation of competencies, designed as an all-inclusive framework, which may be adapted for specific situations. The criteria for including data in the validation process are as follows: (a) if the data are to be employed in making decisions about individuals or groups, all available evidence…

Links the theory of washback with the broader concept of impact in educational measurement and to the recent debate on construct validity associated with Messick. Notes that for many years it was asserted that language tests negatively impacted teaching and learning, an impact known as washback. (25 references) (Author/CK)

Reviews the eye-movement paradigm and refers to recent experiments applying the paradigm to issues of spoken word recognition (e.g., lexical competitor effects), syntactic processing, reference resolution, focus, as well as issues in cross-modality integration that are central to evaluating the modularity hypothesis. (Seven references) (Author/CK)