Deciding which technologies to support for teaching and learning--and how to support them--depends, first, on the ability to learn about each emerging development. Selecting a platform without knowing what is coming right behind it can be risky. Similarly, it is folly to grasp onto a technology without seeing the variety of ways that the…

A brief review of current techniques for forecasting trends and planning ways in which training can facilitate technology and human resource change--trend extrapolation, scenario forecasting, relevance trees, and technology assessment--is followed by a discussion of the Delphi Technique, its development, advantages and disadvantages, and how the…

The Delphi technique, used in planning where convergence of opinion is desirable, is described, along with its limitations and the methodological problems that may arise with its use. (MLW)

An approach is proposed whereby all institutions in a state higher education system may proceed to plan for the year 1990. The approach incorporates two major planning tools--Delphi and Multiple Scenario Analysis--and shows how a structured process can help an institution to generate alternative views of the future. (MLW)

The planning processes that focus on the need to gain consensus among potential planners are described. The scenarios resulting from these processes gain their value not from some objective estimate of their validity but from the commitment and involvement of the participants. (MLW)

This paper reports on an unfinished Delphi investigation of the future information management. Too often the personal aspect of information provision is overlooked in the light of the dramatic development of technology. However, behind every technological advance there is a provider whose role it is to source, organize, and disseminate the…

Most educational planning models are weak at identifying future events and assessing their impact on education. At best they assume a surprise-free future in which present trends continue unabated and interrelationships among social, economic, political, and technological forces stay the same. The ED QUEST model was developed to ameliorate these…

Included in this thorough overview of the probable future developments in videodisc technology and its role as an educational medium are (1) a review of current educational technology literature on videodiscs, which summarizes a U.S. Navy Delphi Study of videodisc technology use through 1986, discusses a National Institute of Education (NIE) study…

This manual describes and illustrates ED QUEST (Quick Environmental Scanning Technique), an educational planning model designed to identify emerging issues and events which portend threats and opportunities to colleges and universities, to analyze the probable impact of these variables on the organization, and to facilitate the development of…