Since 2018, institutions of higher education have been aware of the "enrollment cliff" which refers to expected declines in future enrollment. This paper attempts to describe how prepared institutions in Ohio are for this future by looking at trends leading up to the anticipated decline. Using IPEDS data from 2012-2022, we analyze trends…

Most existing solutions to the current replication crisis in science address only the factors stemming from specific poor research practices. We introduce a novel mechanism that leverages the experts' predictive abilities to analyze the root causes of replication failures. It is backed by the principle that the most accurate predictor is the most…

One of the challenges of discussing validity arguments for machine scoring of essays centers on the absence of a commonly held definition and theory of good writing. At best, the algorithms attempt to measure select attributes of writing and calibrate them against human ratings with the goal of accurate prediction of scores for new essays.…

Cross-validation is a common statistical procedure applied to problems that are otherwise computationally intractable. It is often employed to assess the effectiveness of prediction procedures. In this report, cross-validation is discussed in terms of "U"-statistics. This approach permits consideration of the statistical properties of…

This chapter describes a concrete process that stakeholders can use to make predictions about the future performance of programs in local contexts. Within the field of evaluation, the discussion of validity as it relates to outcome evaluation seems to be focused largely on questions of internal validity (Did it work?) with less emphasis on…

Humans have evolved to follow their intuition, but as any high school physics teacher knows, relying on intuition often leads students to predict outcomes that are at odds with evidence. Over the years, we have attempted to make this intuition-outcome disparity a central theme running throughout our physics classes, with limited success. Part of…

There are usually limited user evaluation of resources on a recommender system, which caused an extremely sparse user rating matrix, and this greatly reduce the accuracy of personalized recommendation, especially for new users or new items. This paper presents a recommendation method based on rating prediction using causal association rules.…

Education systems are increasingly creating rich, longitudinal data sets with frequent, and even real-time, data updates of many student measures, including daily attendance, homework submissions, and exam scores. These data sets provide an opportunity for district and school staff members to move beyond an indicators-based approach and instead…

Conventional pundits, pollsters, and forecasters are focused on whether the economy will improve sufficiently in 2012 for President Barack Obama to gain reelection. The Keys to the White House, a prediction system that the author developed in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, founder of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction…

The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

The Keys to the White House is a historically-based system for predicting the result of the popular vote in American presidential elections. The Keys system tracks the big picture of how well the party holding the White House has governed and does not shift with events of the campaign. This model gives specificity to the idea that it is…

After completing the Multidimensional Work-Ethic Profile (MWEP), 98 college students were given a 20-problem math computation assignment and instructed to stop working on the assignment after completing 10 problems. Next, they were allowed to choose to finish either the partially completed assignment that had 10 problems remaining or a new…

This primer should provide the reader with a deeper understanding of the concept of test validity and will present the recent available validity evidence on the relationship between SAT® scores and important college outcomes. In addition, the content examined on the SAT will be discussed as well as the fundamental attention paid to the fairness of…

A procedure modelling ideal classical and quantum gases is discussed. The proposed approach is mainly based on the idea that modelling and algorithm analysis can provide a deeper understanding of particularly complex physical systems. Appropriate representations and physical models able to mimic possible pseudo-mechanisms of functioning and having…